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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (3790)	12/12/2003 11:34:08 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 4909

if i find out, i'll let you know

To: GraceZ who wrote (3790)	12/15/2003 12:38:22 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4909

trotsky's reponse to your question: oh well, why quibble over a percentage point here or there...it doesn't change the main points, namly that the crack-up boom engendered in China via a hitherto unrelenting credit expansion has created a malinvestment orgy. also, the fact remains that the allegedly strong US economy is a hollow shell on the brink of collapse. the reports you recently sent me actually prove this beyond a doubt, even though i don't agree with all their conclusions. the next phase of the downturn will imo be the consumer recession that we've escaped thus far with mainly the help of the mortgage credit bubble and the expansion in the federal and state deficits. the only question is imo whether it will again be a 'muddle through' 'soft depression' type of downturn or a fully fledged meltdown. my vote is for meltdown at this stage, but i remain openminded in principle about it. btw., note that the recent 'recovery' in Japan owes its existence to - you guessed it - the introduction of hedonic indexing to the government's economic statistics. iow, there is only a statistical recovery, not an actual one. and contrary to the assertions by the Japanese govt., this is NOT an 'international practice'. it's only a US practice, and now a Japanese one as well. i imagine the parasiticians are very grateful for this invention...we'll never have a 'downturn' again, LOL.

To: GraceZ who wrote (3790)	12/30/2003 12:25:37 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4909

Grace, here's how you get 9.7% unemployment, which is roughly the 10% you were asking about. The big increment is the part timers who want full time work but can't get it (without information to support the nature of the part time work--hours, benefits, wages relative to previous or expected job--it's hard to say how "underemployed" they really are): The nation's official jobless rate is 5.9%, a relatively benign level by historical standards. But economists say that figure paints only a partial — and artificially rosy — picture of the labor market. To begin with, there are the 8.7 million unemployed, defined as those without a job who are actively looking for work. But lurking behind that group are 4.9 million part-time workers such as Gluskin who say they would rather be working full time — the highest number in a decade. There are also the 1.5 million people who want a job but didn't look for one in the last month. Nearly a third of this group say they stopped the search because they were too depressed about the prospect of finding anything. Officially termed "discouraged," their number has surged 20% in a year. Add these three groups together and the jobless total for the U.S. hits 9.7%, up from 9.4% a year ago. story.news.yahoo.com