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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hueyone who wrote (508845)	12/13/2003 1:10:19 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769669

What is government debt as a percentage of GNP? This percentage is a lot more relevant than absolute numbers. I don't like Bush, but I think debt as a percentage of GNP is less than what it was during the Reagan years, and that government spending then didn't lead to high interest rates and high inflation, and we had a pretty healthy economy. Well, I take issue with a few things along the lines of this argument. First, Bush was left with a surplus that he has turned into the largest deficit ever. The rampant spending in a 3 year period is unprecedented. And he is not fighting the "red menace" which was a costlier foe than terrorism that reagan fought. Bush's spending was mostly pork anyway. He took the surplus and spent it on his crony friends, in my view. Next we have the social security issue looming large now and a much more peaceful world climate so one could argue fiscal restraint is called for now vs. the 80s. Finally, the GDP numbers are cooked and way overstated. Economists are just now figuring this out, but of course you and I can easily tell that we don't have an 8% GDP environment. I think they have to change their metrics, its tough to see where the error is but my guess is that they are counting US company goods and services as things that are produced here, which of course is incorrect. This economist is predicting something like 82K jobs created/month in 04 and a 3% ACTUAL GDP which is about right imo. That means more slogging along at this economic pace, no boom. So Bush's deficits will not improve, they will probably get worse. Just taking a look at the bond market shows you what people think of this white house and their economic cheerleading. Blecch. In a report titled, "The Twilight Zone Economy," authors Edward Leamer, director of UCLA Anderson Forecast, and Michael Bazdarich take a close look at the 8.2% figure, but find no evidence in the rest of the economic data to support it. biz.yahoo.com The strength was in consumer durables, consumer nondurables, and business equipment — all material stuff," he said. "Factory workers aren't making them, the factory sector isn't producing them, and delivery men aren't bringing them, but the goods are nevertheless ending up at your doorstep and in GDP. It's the Twilight Zone economy." Asked in an interview if he could explain the paradox, Leamer said, "I don't yet understand it. The correlates of GDP growth are not there. Industrial production, employment, cargo growth are not there." businessday.co.za