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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (3344)	12/13/2003 12:19:41 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

russwinter, I don't blame Bush for not understanding but it is inexcusable for Snow, or Evans, (Treasury and Commerce) to be making totally stupid statements about the yuan. First of all, people in their position should address the currency as Reminbi, or RMB, but not yuan, which is nothing more than the word dollar in Chinese. Second, they should have some understanding how currency works and how are they traded. For them to just randomly suggest a country like China, or any country, can magically float the currency is scary. Scary because if they really meant what they said, they then clearly lack qualifications for their respective jobs. Charlene Barshefsky was interviewed last week on some TV station. Too bad she is not longer our trade rep. She clearly pointed out the lack of infrastructure in China for them to consider floating the RMB right now. The best that we can hope for and may be pushed, is a repegging to the dollar at a different level, presumably higher. Jay may remember it wasn't that long ago, in the 80s, that RMB was "nothing". Foreigners have to exchange for "foreign exchange certificates" in lieu of using RMB in China. The black markets were everywhere. The last I remember was early 90s with US$1 easily commanding 10 RMB outside major hotels in the big cities. Is the RMB ready for a free floating system, the way that we trade euros, US$ and yen? Not remotely likely. Yes, it is in vogue to have some wild ass opinion about the yuan. In reality, most have no clue what they are talking about. (by the way, I am not suggesting I have a clue either)

To: russwinter who wrote (3344)	12/13/2003 8:46:45 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hi Russ, First, my tale of the gold hunt … Message 19591980 Then, on to this puzzle ... <<Exporters are bringing back ever bigger dollar receipts and banks, according to the Bank of International Settlements, are repatriating funds and seeing more domestic deposits.>> … a local businessman friend told me that the government has promulgated via the Communist Party network (the network works well in that it gets the message out, but does not require the use of the media) a new amnesty policy whereby folks can repatriate as much as they want from offshore accounts and can bring as much unexplainable cash into the banking system and never have to account for where the moolah came from or whether taxes were paid on the bread. If so, then it would appear that (a) the government wants to bring money home, and into the open, and (b) is not particularly concerned about the effects of the deluge, including <<the fastest rate of inflation in 6 1/2 years>> They in effect seem to welcome inflation, courting it with gusto. If we believe Chinese government priority is the Chinese economy first, and that Chinese peasants have lagged in income increase vis a vis the city folks, then perhaps the 700 mm laggards are about to get a ‘keep quiet and docile’ distribution of bread. If so, then between Chinese food and energy shortages, the items that the Maestro Greensputin explicitly does not care about, and Chinese money-printing, at which they are more adept than Professor BurnAndKaput ever could, I think resource shares and gold will continue to be a good bet, as in NToeAwsBe achamchen.com . Chugs, Jay