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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (3348)	12/13/2003 2:47:27 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Other than that, there is absolutely no sense to hold bonds - bond holders are being robbed. About 3.2 Trillion dollars, waiting to exit. When? That's a big question. That begs the questions " Who holds the bonds? ( boldholder profile)" and "Where would that money go?". C

To: Real Man who wrote (3348)	12/13/2003 3:36:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't know how long the carry trade can continue. Other than that, there is absolutely no sense to hold bonds - bond holders are being robbed. About 3.2 Trillion dollars, waiting to exit. When? That's a big question. Rather than trying to figure out when Treasuries fall (and that might not be until we double top) It is safer and more profitable to just keep betting that interest rates will not rise as fast or as much as the consensus thinks. As for corporate bonds, they will get crushed, and junk bonds will get crucified, but when? This is another one of those things that I see differently than most everyone else here. IMO The problem will not start with treasuries. It will start with junk and spread up, not treasuries and spread down. There can easily be a flight out of junk or equities into treasuries and we could easily get another blowoff top in treasuries. M