It's only one set of anecdotes but this article illustrates the complexity that the US commanders on the ground seem to understand much better than the Washington crowd.
Belief That Insurgency Will Fade May Be Misplaced
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Thomas E. Ricks and Anthony Shadid
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, December 15, 2003; Page A01
BAGHDAD, Dec. 14 -- The capture of former president Saddam Hussein was greeted with euphoria at the marble-walled headquarters of the U.S. occupation authority here, but in the towns and villages to the north and west of the capital, where anger at the occupation is most intense, Hussein's arrest may have little impact on the insurgency that has roiled the country in recent months.
In the eight months that Hussein has been on the run, the resistance has gathered a momentum of its own, driven primarily by local financiers and ringleaders. Although gloating crowds often glorify Hussein after attacks on U.S. forces, recent interviews across the most restive parts of Iraq suggest that motivation for the insurgency extends well beyond loyalty to the former leader.
In rhetorical terms at least, the message of those fighters and their supporters has appealed more to nationalism and religion than to loyalty to Hussein.
"We are not fighting for Saddam," said Ahmed Jassim, a religious student in the flash-point city of Fallujah, as he cheered an attack on a U.S. convoy recently. "We are fighting for our country, for our honor, for Islam. We are not doing this for Saddam."
U.S. military officials said Hussein's capture would probably not spell an immediate end to the fighting and could result in a short-term increase in attacks, if Hussein loyalists lash back. "We do not expect at this point in time that we will have a complete elimination of those attacks," Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the U.S. military commander in Iraq, said at a news conference on Sunday.
But U.S. commanders across the country expressed confidence that over time, the capture would cripple resistance activity. Army officers said they think the seizure of Hussein also might convince many Iraqis who have so far not supported the occupation that history is on the side of the Americans and their allies.
"The capture of Saddam Hussein will have a tremendous negative impact on the Baathist insurgency, and it is all good news for us and the future of Iraq," Lt. Col. Henry Arnold, a battalion commander in the 101st Airborne Division who is based near the Syrian border, said Sunday. "The Wicked Witch is dead."
"I think this puts a nail in the coffin of hopes that the Baath Party could ever regain control of Iraq," another U.S. commander said. "There is no longer any central figure around whom such a movement could coalesce."
"Without Saddam," he added, "This is no longer a nationalist movement."
For U.S. forces, the most immediate challenge will be to capitalize on information gleaned from Hussein. "The good news is we believe we will gain some actionable intelligence over the next few days, as Saddam is interrogated," said Brig. Gen. Mark Hertling, an assistant commander of the 1st Armored Division, which has responsibility for most of Baghdad. "What he has in his possession, and what he will certainly say to those questioning him, will certainly contribute to connecting some additional dots."
But the commander in charge of the operation to apprehend Hussein, Maj. Gen. Raymond Odierno of the 4th Infantry Division, said it did not appear that the former president was directly organizing resistance activities from his hide-out. There were no communication devices in either the hole in which he was found or a nearby hut.
Odierno and other top U.S. commanders have long maintained that they have not seen signs of national leadership for the resistance, suggesting that Hussein's apprehension may have a more symbolic than practical impact on the insurgency.
"I believe he was there more for moral support," Odierno said. "I don't believe he was coordinating the effort because I don't believe there's any national coordination."
Another key challenge for the military may be to prove to a country where suspicion runs deep that U.S. authorities do, in fact, have Hussein in custody. Doubts are still expressed in some areas about the fate of Hussein's sons, Uday and Qusay, who were killed July 22 in a four-hour gun battle with U.S. forces in the northern city of Mosul. Hussein was known to have doubles, and conspiracy theories are sure to run rife.
In contrast to the Shiite Muslim-dominated south and the Kurdish north, where Hussein was almost universally despised, the Sunni Muslim region of central Iraq has a more complicated relationship with the former leader. In towns such as Khaldiya and Fallujah, along the Euphrates River, youths have chanted after attacks: "With our souls, with our blood, we sacrifice for you Saddam." Graffiti in towns along the Tigris River, in the region that was Hussein's ancestral home, have praised the former leader as a hero and the "crown of Arabs."
But at the same time, many residents have refrained from claiming that the attacks were motivated by support for Hussein. While some expressed nostalgia for his heavy-handed rule -- repression that, in its own way, ensured security -- many have voiced disappointment, and a sense of betrayal, at his disappearance. In past months, it was not uncommon to hear that Hussein, through his blunders, was responsible for bringing U.S. forces to Iraq.
While a minority, Sunni Muslims have long ruled Iraq, and Hussein was the last in a string of Sunni rulers that dates to the Ottoman Empire. Today, a sense of disempowerment pervades the region.
Filling the void are an almost knee-jerk attachment to Hussein and his Baath Party, which drew its most important members from the region, and a surge in Islamic sentiments, which are bolstered by the region's conservative and traditional ethos and hostility to occupation.
In recent months, the hostility has appeared to be ascendant. After dozens of fighters in Samarra were killed by U.S. forces in lengthy gun battles late last month, young men visiting wounded civilians at Samarra General Hospital insisted that the fighters were motivated by what they described as nationalism and religion.
"Everyone is with the resistance," said 22-year-old Safa Hamad Hassan, whose cousin was wounded when a tank round landed near his home during the fighting. "Saddam Hussein is finished. We are protecting our honor and our land."
While slogans in the town praised Hussein, much of the graffiti was directed at Iraqis viewed as collaborating with U.S. forces. "We will blow up the house of anyone who works with the Americans," declared one slogan near the Samarra police station.
In some towns, residents have insisted that guerrillas should be called mujaheddin, an Islamic term for fighters, rather than fedayeen, the term used by the former government. Denunciations of collaborators are typically couched in religious terms, rather than as betrayals of Hussein's government.
Even if the guerrilla networks are still driven by Baath Party financing and contacts -- as many U.S. military officials contend -- the recruitment that is key to keeping the campaign alive does not always glorify Hussein.
"Saddam Hussein is behind all our problems," said Khaled Kirtani, whose brother was killed in an attack on U.S. forces in Khaldiya in July. "The young people are waking up," he added. "They're not Baathists, they're not party members. They did it for God. When they saw the Americans come, raid the houses, steal from the people, they didn't accept it."
Ricks reported from Washington. Staff writer Vernon Loeb contributed to this report. |
