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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (43338)	12/15/2003 5:19:47 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Elmat, I can be wrong, and events are certainly beginning to look that way, apparently, and we will soon find out for certain, in a few hours, to see if the US variety of investors are as rational as HK family of speculators. HK market went down 0.6% today, and the Chinese oil firms went down 4-5%, on the one hand not believing that Saddam's capture will matter, and on the other hand not trusting that the Chinese oil firms will be able to buy cheaper international oil to sell at dearer domestic price. Japan gamblers did the opposite of HK speculators, and Tokyo market went up 300 pts which is quite a bit (3%), and so the Japanese must be wrong, as is the case more often than Jay being wrong :0) Gold did next to nothing, and thus giving no pleasure to eager bargain buyers. Currencies did about as little as gold. A puzzle all around, but, we must not fight the market, but go with the flow. In a few hours, we will have a preliminary answer. The financial market's tepid reaction so far to Saddam's capture has been disappointing, perhaps waiting for NYSE leadership. Chugs, Jay

To: elmatador who wrote (43338)	12/15/2003 2:36:50 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Elmat, I think there are several possibilities to keep Mr. Bush poll ratings high. If Saddam's scene fads fast, they may wait for few months to bring Mr. Bin Laden live or "Confirmed DNA" of his body out. They can also make a few shots in Hollywood and show a live trial of Saddam, aka OJ trial of the century, to keep the daily day time feed to J6P alive and exciting. But if all else fails, don't you think it will accelerate the schedule for another regime change (say in Syria) next? There are endless possibilities!. ep, how long the Saddam effect will last? The future of the administration is tightly coupled with the situation in Iraq. So Iraq will be the center of attentions and there will be more geo-political enhacements from time to time. Any Saddam blip on the market screen will be short lived. I asked Jay if there would have been a possibility of the markedt disregarding the arrest and according to him the psychological effect -those 98% created in the heads of peole out of a 2% of reality- will prevail. Delivering Saddam at the end of the campaign, before 1st of May, iot would have been a bigger effect. Today. after the damage has been done, my view is that the effect will vanish in a week.