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To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (50085)	12/15/2003 5:06:21 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

I agree, Ed. When the DJIA was at 8500 just after Bush declared the war was "over", the DJIA could easily have risen 500 points the day Saddam was captured. Actually I think that capturing Bin Laden would have an even more profound effect on the market. I started the day short DIA, QQQ, and VSH. Of course I was concerned about my short positions before the open, but when they opened weaker than I expected, and immediately sold off, my fear evaporated and I held through today's close. The selling into strength this morning, and close near the lows doesn't bode well for the short term in my opinion. Mr. Cramer might have been glad that he was long coming into today, but I'm glad that I'm short leaving it. A lot of stocks are overpriced now, and a lot of people are buying for the wrong reasons, just like they were selling for the wrong reasons late last year. I quote a gentleman on CNBC last week. He said "Price does not equal value". I am not overly bearish, and definitely not for the long term. However, I think that we could see a sizeable correction in the indexes, and even more in specific stocks, mostly technology related. I'll use VSH as an example. They are a fine company, and their products are used inside nearly every electronic device made. However, the stock is trading at 82 times this year's estimate and 35 times next year's estimate. That's too much to pay for a company that is only expected to grow earnings 12 percent per year. The stock is also very close to the mean target of $23, and I think it's a farce for any analyst to maintain a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" rating on a stock trading at such a high valuation. For what it's worth, the short interest has more than doubled the last four months from 6.3 million to 13.0 million (9.5% of the float). Larry: I covered my short in TOY last week for the reasons cited and even went long. Sold out too early, but I don't think that the stock would have traded as high as 12.46 this morning had it not been for the Barrons article. I am currently out of the stock. It is too high to buy and too risky to short this close to Christmas. I would buy it again in the mid to high 10s, but probably won't short it again until after the fourth quarter results are made public, or if the stock trades closer to 13. Ron: I would guess that OHB opened at 30 because sellers pulled their offers to see where the stock would open, and one or more irrational buyers bid the stock up with market on open orders. Then the sellers came in just after the open and started hitting the bids. Even though you were willing to sell lower than 30, I'd guess that the size of your offer was too small to affect the opening price. Congratulations to the brave men and women who captured Saddam and put their lives on the line each and every day in Iraq.