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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Fred Levine who wrote (8322)12/15/2003 8:10:53 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Respond to of 25522
 
Taiwan's PC, IC industries paused in November, says index
By Mark LaPedus
Silicon Strategies
12/15/2003, 7:50 PM ET

PORTLAND--The PC and semiconductor industries in Taiwan experienced a brief pause in November amid a slowdown in chip-set and foundry sales on the island, according to a new index that tracks the overall health of the worldwide electronics supply chain.

The so-called Silicon Island Index (SII) indicated that the PC and semiconductor industries fell 1.1 percent in November over October in Taiwan, according to the creator of the index, Pacific Crest Securities Inc. This follows a 9.2 percent jump in the SII in October over September, according to Pacific Crest, an investment banking firm in Portland.

The SII is based on a composite of 30 public Taiwanese companies, including PC makers, chip-set houses, silicon foundries and chip-packaging providers. The foundries on the SII list include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corp. (TSMC).

Given that Taiwan is the "lynchpin" in the global PC supply chain, the index is supposed to indicate the overall health of the industry, according to Pacific Crest. The island is the world's largest supplier of PC motherboards, peripherals, chip sets, and other products, according to Pacific Crest.

Meanwhile, in the SII, the pause in November was not due to seasonal trends, but rather on share gains made by Intel Corp. in the chip-set business--at the expense of local suppliers, according to the Pacific Crest.

Chip-set sales were down 13.2 percent in November and down 25.6 percent year-over-year in Taiwan, according to the index. The chip-set makers on the SII are Silicon Integrated Systems Corp. and Via Technologies Inc.

Extending lead times for components and depleted inventories also contributed to the slight drop for November, according to the SII. Silicon foundry sales in Taiwan were also down 6.3 percent sequentially in November, but up 27.3 percent year-over-year, according to the index.

As reported, TSMC's sales are expected to dip in November and December, while rival UMC is projected to grow in the same period (see December 3 story).

On the bright side, chip-packaging and test sales were up 5.2 percent in November and 40 percent year-over-year in Taiwan. The chip-packaging providers include ASE, ASE Test, King Yuan, OSE and Siliconware.

So-called PC builder sales were up 4.4 percent in November and up 44.7 percent year-over-year on the island. PC makers on the SII include Quanta, Compal, Inventec, Tatung, Acer, Mitac, Arima, Clevo, Q-Run and Twinhead.

However, PC motherboard sales fell 12.4 percent in November over October and 6.1 percent year-over-year in Taiwan. Motherboard makers on SII include Asustek, MSI, FIC, Elitegroup, Abit, Gigabyte, DFI, Biostar, Shuttle, and USI.



To: Fred Levine who wrote (8322)12/15/2003 10:11:34 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25522
 
Hi Fred,

Somewhat perplexed myself.

Our dollar is weak and nobody goes to Europe.

Their Euro is strong and can buy much in terms of Dollars.

I would think that American stocks in a relative way of more affordable.

Of course that means that Europeans are contrarians and buying the rise??

Sort of a conflict that apparently doesn't have appeal.

One thing for sure our economy is leading - perhaps there is a lag.

Wonder when they have the nerve to take there head out of the sand???

Bob



To: Fred Levine who wrote (8322)12/15/2003 10:13:15 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25522
 
Fred, I don't know why it declined but I remember Big Bucks' observation that the week before Xmas usually brings a decline to AMAT. Gottfried



To: Fred Levine who wrote (8322)12/16/2003 10:38:55 AM
From: chomolungma  Respond to of 25522
 
When the dollar begins a slow appreciation--which, IMO, is imminent --we should see a swift price recovery of US stocks.

Fred, respectfully I disagree. I think the dollar still has a way to go - at least 10-15% more on a basket of currencies and probably more against those that are being artificially kept down like the yen and yuan. Keep in mind that historically currencies tend to overshoot and a decline of more than mentioned above is possible before rising to meet equilibrium.

As for it being bad for AMAT or U.S. companies as a whole, I think it will be the opposite. Almost every earnings report I read mentions the positive effect that the dollar decline has had. Even retailers like Costco report that a large percentage of their increase in top line is due to the increase in their non-U.S. stores. I think the positive effect on earnings will far outweigh the impulse from foreigners to avoid dollar based assets.