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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (3440)	12/15/2003 11:26:58 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

GSS is just another of those little gold stocks i bought for the price of a cup of good coffee and watched it rise to the price of a bad haircut, and then all these people suddenly think it's such a bargain and going to the moon, and i have to laugh. where were all the people buying FCX at ten bucks after the Bali bombing? none of the conformist advisors reco'd it. but now that it's at 45 bucks, everybody loves it and finds reasons to justify it. gold stocks are no different from tech stocks in the type of momo interest they are attracting, imo. and i will not be surprised if they get whacked just like the techs. therefore, i take the same approach as i took with techs--buy something, sell it at a stupid price and walk away. given the choice between losing capital and opportunity, i would choose to lose opportunity. capital lost is gone forever, but opportunity always comes back for capital preserved. the key imo is finding the chances that have prospective rewards outweighing the risks. look at the market: where do these opportunities exist, if at all? i would prefer slow and steady gains so as to hold a long time, but if they come fast and furious, i like to take the money and run. most of the stocks are discounting and advance in the POG -- that's just the way it is -- you can't make buy and sell decisions on that basis, IMO. sure you can. as i said before, the way i see it, many of the energy stocks are discounting a DROP in the price of oil, so they are priced cheaply. conversely, imo most of the gold stocks are discounting a HUGE GAIN in the price of gold. which trade makes sense? to the momo investors, of course the answer is the stocks that have good action, in...gold. an easy move to fade in my book. there are OODLES of gold stockletters and gold-themed dailies, and gold websites...where are all the energy dailies? they don't exist. it's a dead market. and i'll let you in on a little secret: our modern world could exist without gold, but it would fall apart very quickly without energy. just one man's opinion, and i could be wrong.... that guy's a genius -- he shorted GFI and HMY right before they turned up, right?? i think when a momentum move gets very intense, nobody does a good job of calling the top. look at all the fallen bears who were calling the top on the Naz in 1998, they all fell by the wayside. these guys were ridiculed for years as the market doubled and then doubled again. but then, when, the market fell apart and a lot of people got hurt, suddenly these Cassandras didn't seem like such idiots, even if you couldn't have made money daytrading their book. so i think it really depends on the time frame one uses. me, i'm happy to catch a nice move and "lie low". if there's nothing good now, i think another good risk/reward opp will present itself later. once in a while he has an orginal thought or two, even <g>) hey, give him a little credit for being bearish on the golds. nobody else with any gold "cred" is...