If Bush runs as strongly as I think he will, sixty seats in the Senate is within reach.
washingtonpost.com
Breaux Will Not Run for New Term
Senator Hands Democrats Setback
By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 16, 2003; Page A01
Sen. John Breaux (D-La.), whose penchant for dealmaking contributed to the recent enactment of legislation to revamp Medicare, announced yesterday he will not run for a fourth term next year, handing Democrats a new setback in their efforts to regain control of the Senate.
Breaux, 59, is the fifth Democratic senator from the South to announce retirement plans in what could be a boon to Republican efforts to expand their strong base in the region and widen their narrow Senate majority.
The other four are John Edwards (N.C.), Bob Graham (Fla.), Ernest F. Hollings (S.C.) and Zell Miller (Ga.), most of whom -- like Breaux -- would have been strong bets for reelection had they decided to run again.
But, without incumbents in those races, political strategists see all five as competitive and leaning toward the GOP in some cases. Except for Florida, President Bush carried those southern states comfortably in 2000.
With Republicans holding 51 of the 100 Senate seats, Democrats must minimize their losses in the South and pick up several non-southern seats to have any chance of winning a majority. But if Republicans pick up seats in the South without losing ground elsewhere, they could strengthen their hand in marshaling the 60 votes needed to cut off Democratic filibusters against GOP bills and nominations.
Bush beat Al Gore by 8 percentage points in Louisiana in 2000, but the state went Democratic in reelecting Sen. Mary Landrieu in 2002 and electing Democrat Kathleen Blanco as governor last month. Louisiana has not had a Republican senator since Reconstruction.
The leading early contenders for Breaux's seat are two House members, both in their early forties: Democrat Chris John, who represents the state's Cajun region and is close to Breaux; and Republican David Vitter, who represents suburban New Orleans.
At a news conference in Baton Rouge, La., Breaux, a veteran of 35 years in Congress, fought back tears as he disclosed his decision, which he described as difficult.
"There comes a time in every career when it is time to step aside and let others step up and serve," he said. "And for my family and me, that time has arrived."
But he rejected rumors that he might quit early, saying he had unfinished business in the Senate. "There's still a lot to get done in this Congress," he said, saying he wanted to work next year for passage of energy legislation and "to get started on legislation for the 40 million Americans who have no health insurance" -- a concept that has considerable support in both parties.
Breaux, the only child of an oilfield worker and a dressmaker, was the youngest member of Congress when he was elected to the House in 1972 after several years as a staffer for then-Rep. Edwin Edwards. When Edwards was elected governor in 1972, Breaux ran for his seat and won.
A self-proclaimed political centrist and dealmaker, with a quick mind and Cajun charm, Breaux lined up with moderates of both parties to try to broker bipartisan deals on a range of issues, especially after moving to the Senate in 1987.
He reached out to Republicans on issue after issue, including health care, energy production, tax cuts and welfare, often to the dismay of more liberal Democrats who felt he bargained away too much. He relished the dealmaker image, often saying he would "always rather have half of something than 100 percent of nothing."
His deals did not always work, but he kept trying. The persistence paid off last month when Breaux became one of the two Democrats allowed by Republicans to help negotiate the final version of legislation to inject more private-sector competition into Medicare while adding a prescription drug benefit. The measure included initiatives that Breaux had pushed for years.
Earlier, Breaux's willingness to work with Republicans led to an invitation to join Bush's Cabinet, which he rejected. He was instrumental in helping pass Bush's huge 2001 tax cut after working with other moderates to whittle it to $1.35 trillion. He was one of few Democrats to support John D. Ashcroft's nomination as attorney general and also broke with most Democrats to support oil drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which the Senate blocked.
But he kept close ties with Democrats who did not always share his views. Senate Democratic leader Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.) called him a "valued colleague" who was always "eager to reach across the aisle and find common ground on issues that mattered most to Americans."
At his news conference, Breaux said nothing about what he might do after leaving the Senate. But many former colleagues have left in their late fifties and early sixties, after several Senate terms, to pursue careers in the private sector, some of them as lobbyists.
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