After Losing Momentum, Kerry Is Shifting Tactics to Gain 'Bounce' in Iowa
nytimes.com
December 16, 2003
THE MASSACHUSETTS SENATOR
By DAVID M. HALBFINGER
DES MOINES, Dec. 15 — It has come to this, for Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts: to win the Jan. 27 Democratic primary in New Hampshire, where he was once seen as the heavy favorite, his aides now believe he will first have to win or come close in Iowa, defying expectations and gaining the kind of favorable publicity his campaign has sorely wanted for months.
After weeks of tough headlines and even worse poll numbers, Mr. Kerry, to the relief of some aides, is finally acting and sounding like an underdog, and less like someone who felt he was being robbed of what was rightfully his.
Indeed, Mr. Kerry has been fighting "for every vote" — as he often puts it — during a four-day swing through southeastern and central Iowa. On Saturday night in Davenport, he talked briefly before taking questions for an hour and 45 minutes, quite possibly a personal record. Several times he apologized to his audience for "fouling up" their dinner or movie dates and thanked them for braving the ice and snow.
It was a rare performance for Mr. Kerry, who usually bows to the handlers who try to hustle him off after 30 minutes or an hour of questions at most. And he appeared to have won at least a few new votes. "I just like his straightforwardness," said Tom Kelly, 61, a steelworker who said he had never been to a political event before. Mr. Kelly said he would buck his union, which is backing Representative Richard A. Gephardt, by caucusing for Mr. Kerry. "He's got the right answers as far as I'm concerned."
Before Mr. Kerry was done, Pat Schilling, 48, declared herself a Republican no more. "I decided that to stand on the sidelines, do nothing, and allow Bush to have another four years was unacceptable," she said, after telling Mr. Kerry she would be caucusing for him, too. "I think he has integrity, and experience. And I think he cares about the average American."
Whether enough voters will agree is unclear, but Mr. Kerry has done much to persuade people to give him a closer look. In the last five weeks he has shaken up his staff, shortened and sharpened his stump speech, replaced his slogan — dropping the "courage to do what's right" for a "real deal" for America — and started trumpeting what he would do in his first 100 days if elected president.
But his advisers are also cautious about how quickly Mr. Kerry can gain ground on Howard Dean, saying they hope only to close the gap in New Hampshire to within striking distance by early January. A win there, Mr. Kerry's advisers now are conceding, will depend largely on whether he can gain the elusive "bounce" in news media attention and poll standings that could come from a strong showing in Iowa.
To that end, Mr. Kerry has sent to Des Moines Michael Whouley, a veteran Democratic field operative who first worked for Mr. Kerry on his 1982 race for lieutenant governor and who was Bill Clinton's national field director in 1992 and Al Gore's in 2000. Mr. Whouley, in turn, has had several staff members from states with later primaries transferred to Iowa to help, campaign officials said.
Mr. Whouley's knack for identifying supporters, turning them out to vote — and thinking on his feet — is the stuff of legend in New Hampshire: on primary day in 2000, after 4 p.m. surveys of voters leaving polls showed Mr. Gore down 4 points to Bill Bradley, Mr. Whouley sent workers onto the street to knock on doors and helped eke out a victory.
Mr. Whouley said he and other longtime Kerry advisers from Boston who had returned to the senator's side recently had done so because "every one of us feels he can still do it."
"Who's in the hunt in Iowa?" he said. "Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry. Who's in the hunt in New Hampshire? Dean and Kerry. In both places Kerry is very well thought of. He still has to close the deal, but there's plenty of time for him to do that."
To do it — and in no small measure, to break out of the fallen front-runner narrative that has dominated coverage of his campaign — Mr. Kerry has begun speaking past the news media. On Sunday, for example, he held a live televised forum with undecided Iowa Democrats. The half-hour program was broadcast on seven stations across the state at a cost of about $28,000, the campaign said, and could be replicated in New Hampshire. But its impact was doubtless limited by coverage of the capture of Saddam Hussein.
Still, the news of Mr. Hussein's capture seemed to buoy Mr. Kerry, as if it might at last prompt Democrats to reconsider Dr. Dean as their front-runner.
Appearing at a senior citizens center here on Monday to talk about Medicare, Mr. Kerry instead veered off into a 14-minute oration on how he had been right about Iraq all along, and how Americans "deserve more than hearing answers that are recited in a foreign policy speech written by someone else." At the same moment, Mr. Kerry knew full well, Dr. Dean was delivering a major foreign policy speech in Los Angeles.
Mr. Kerry has also been outlining his agenda for his first 100 days as president, to impress voters that he is best prepared to "hit the ground running" if elected.
"What can the next president do in the first 100 days?" his latest commercial in Iowa and New Hampshire begins. "John Kerry will put a stop to George Bush's radical agenda. He'll declare an end to Bush's go-it-alone foreign policy. Roll back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy to invest in health care and education. Expand antiracketeering laws to go after corporate corruption. And Kerry will make energy independence a national priority so no American will have to fight for Mideast oil."
The ads dovetail with the much-slimmed-down stump speech. In it, Mr. Kerry riffs on President Bush's notorious "mission accomplished" boast by saying the only missions accomplished under this administration have been those of corporate fat cats and Washington special interests — though he was forced to alter the text after Saddam Hussein's capture on Sunday.
Still, Mr. Kerry continues to lapse into the mode of a senator accustomed to delivering stemwinders until forced to yield the floor. Beginning a speech on civil liberties at Iowa State University recently, he spent nearly 10 minutes ignoring his text to list all the other issues that he was "tempted" to talk about but that were off the subject. And when he is tired, his stump can easily double in length to 20 minutes or more.
Mr. Kerry's aides acknowledge he will need to be at his sharpest all the time to persuade voters that he is adept and fiery enough as a candidate to beat Mr. Bush.
Buttonholing supermarket shoppers in Portsmouth, N.H., a week ago, Mr. Kerry finished his 15-second tête-à-tête with Paul Flanagan, 29, a counterman at a delicatessen in Dover, N.H., by saying he wanted to win the man's vote. Mr. Flanagan blurted, "I think you just did."
Mr. Flanagan said he was taken by Mr. Kerry's sincerity and seriousness. "People want that outspoken, harsh, this-is-my-way thing, and Dean's getting to that core voter," Mr. Flanagan mused. "We're looking for that guy who's able to say we're tired and not going to take it any more. But Dean's too stiff, too inflexible. He can't win.
"I don't think Kerry's doing as well," he added. "But he could win, if he's willing to get more of that fire going." |
