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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (3456)	12/16/2003 12:43:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Piss Poor analysis IMO. Gross assumes that not only will reflation work, it will work in spades. In the meantime leading indicators are falling a bit (not that I place too much faith in these), the job market is not showing improvement (I do put a lot of faith in the meaning of that), retail sales are on the low end of targets, and refi money has all but dried up. Why would anyone assume that reflation has worked to the point of being self sustaining with M3 falling, refi-activity sucking hind wind, no pickup in payroll taxes or wages, and signs of a topping stock market to boot. Unless it is self sustaining, interest rates are not likely to be hiked, at least significantly. He might be correct about bonds not being the place to be, but only because of credit risk and other factors, not because of the 1.5% hike in rates he is calling for. In short, I think te totally blew it. Mish

To: ild who wrote (3456)	12/16/2003 12:45:28 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

there's nothing masterful about the Fed -- McCulley is nutz. and c'mon ... Keynes ... in heaven? <vbg>

To: ild who wrote (3456)	12/16/2003 12:54:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Actual text of message sent to Pimco Lets see if I get a reply. Through Holes In The Floor Of Heaven Sorry Paul, I do not buy your analysis. With your call for 1.5% hikes in 2005 you are making huge assumptions that I believe to be unwarranted. You assume that not only will reflation work, it will work in spades. In the meantime leading indicators are falling a bit (not that I place too much faith in these), the job market is not showing improvement (I do put a lot of faith in the meaning of that), retail sales are on the low end of targets, and refi money has all but dried up. Why would anyone assume that reflation has worked to the point of being self sustaining with M3 falling, refi-activity sucking hind wind, no pickup in payroll taxes or wages, and signs of a topping stock market to boot. Unless a recovery is self sustaining, interest rates are not likely to be hiked, at least significantly (if indeed at all!) You might be correct about bonds not being the place to be but only because of credit risk and other factors (like China and Europe refusing to buy more of our overpriced treasuries), and because of credit risks due to a FALTERING economy, not because of the 1.5% hike in rates you are calling for. In short, I think you totally blew it. Mike Shedlock

To: ild who wrote (3456)	12/16/2003 2:06:10 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

words from Ned Schmidt on gold, dollar Gold and Silver continue to amaze all. The strength of the price action has surprised even the most bullish of us. I suppose we should not knock being right. Why do the metals continue to be so strong, and so over bought? Well, we might start with the Federal Reserve confirming it lacks a fundamental philosophy for managing U.S. monetary policy. The latest statement by the FOMC confirms that view. As long as stocks are going up the Fed thinks it has it right. We have witnessed the consequences of this attitude before. The dollar continues to devalue. The Great Greenspan Dollar Devaluation will result in the U.S., and our fellow Americans in Canada, paying a great economic price. Only the deaf, dumb and CNBC commentator does not realize the dollar is being devalued, and the serious consequences of that development. Only when inflation and U.S. interest rates are back in double digit territory will the popular U.S. media report on the dollar's problems. Finally, we have those that have just discovered Gold and Silver. Silver is now popular with those that previously liked to trade cheap technology stocks. When are the Gold and Silver markets going to correct? I still think Gold is driving the bus, and Silver is along for the ride. Gold is likely being driven by year end action. "Everyone" wants to show how smart they were by having Gold in their portfolio when year end statements are cut. financialsense.com / jim