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To: Gut Trader who wrote (271028)	12/16/2003 12:30:03 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

Date: Tue Dec 16 2003 10:47 trotsky (NDX/DOW ratio) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved close to a confirmed sell signal now...risk aversion is making a stealth comeback. numerous non-confirmations at the recent highs also weigh - as does the fact that everybody seems to be bullish, as evidenced by low p/c ratios, a new 18-month low in the Rydex ratio, the longest string of a 30%+ spread of bulls over bears in the II poll's history, coupled with a market priced ABOVE the top p/e's paid at the height of the 1929 mania. complacency is rife...put volatility premiums have recently hit multi-year lows as well. verdict: sell. the sentiment is reminiscent of late '73 actually...market topped out on Jan. 8 '74, and then collapsed by 56% ( Dow Indu ) . an interesting parallel is the 'boil-the-frog-slowly' energy crisis that seems to be brewing.