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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3470)	12/16/2003 2:58:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I am a very nervous bull on gold and silver. I bought the last dip on miners but I sure wish I sold it already. Still I am not loaded in the stuff by any means. I am also in futures, covered with calls, and call spreads. I have taken many call spreads on gold and silver off. A few are so ar ITM (even the top end) that a $15 pullback will not hurt them a bit. I am trying to bail on another gold call spread for a double and if we open up or flat tomorrow I likely get it (the top end OTM is decaying fast) Right now I am pondering an exit on my futures to only holding the remaining spreads. It will depend on the action in the next week just what I do. January options close if one week from today. We can easily get a hard pullback in january on miners and POG. M

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3470)	12/16/2003 3:18:59 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

enjoy.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3470)	12/16/2003 3:30:38 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 110194

Darfot: i spoke to a retail broker with a conservative client base...one client finally stepped up to the plate and asked for an order of a major gold mutual fund...the equivalent investment booked in american $ equivalent was under $ 20k... I think this is indicative of the lack of participation of the vast majority of retail investors to date...

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3470)	12/16/2003 3:53:15 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

IMHO gold stocks are no longer cheap. Some are quite expensive. OTOH they are in a bull market, so big dips should be bought. All last year I've been selling naked puts on dips and covered calls on rallies. Did OK even on stocks like AEM and GFI. Recent volatility has increased premiums so I continue to play this game. I usually sell OOTM for 6-8 months out time frame. When people see that gold MuFu are the only ones with 3-year 30+% returns they think that gold MuFu may have a place in their portfolios. Also many MuFu money managers may want a little bit of gold stocks in their holdings to show that they are "in the game". All that creates support. In big market downturn I expect gold stocks to cave as well. Also in regards to POG we've had only bear market in USD not the real bull market in POG. From Heinz: <<<Date: Tue Dec 16 2003 12:55 trotsky (Gedlo, 12:00) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i agree with the rate argument actually...that's why i said 'short term'. no doubt at least some of the money chasing gold related investments is based on inflation expectations...and when those appear not to pan out, some selling may be based on that. but i really don't know for sure...sometimes it's just a few newsletter writers giving out 'sells'. certainly the gold timers are not exactly bullish according to Hulbert. this is of course bullish medium term, but can likewise have short term bearish effects. >>>