To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (511087 ) 12/16/2003 4:53:44 PM From: Hope Praytochange Respond to of 769670 Consumer Prices Fall; Trade Gap Shrinks By REUTERS Published: December 16, 2003 Filed at 2:16 p.m. ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices took a surprise tumble last month, dragging the underlying inflation rate to a nearly 38-year low, even as industrial output and groundbreaking for homes surged, reports showed on Tuesday. A separate report showed the shortfall in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of America's trade with the rest of the world, shrank more than expected in the third quarter. Advertisement The slew of data suggested the economy was stronger than most analysts had thought. But with signs inflation was slowing, economists said the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates at basement levels for a long stretch. Prices for inflation-sensitive U.S Treasury securities rose on the inflation report, but fell back after the strong industrial production figures were released. Stocks were mixed in morning trade, while the dollar held above record lows hit earlier in the day against the euro. A broad range of price declines drove the Consumer Price Index, the most widely used gauge of U.S. inflation, down O.2 percent in November, the Labor Department said. The so-called core rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also fell, dropping 0.1 percent -- its first decline since December 1982. Closely watched core inflation has risen just 1.1 percent over the past 12 months, the slowest rate of advance since the 12 months ended January 1966. Energy prices dropped sharply for a second straight month, with gasoline down 5 percent and natural gas off 3.1 percent. Clothing costs slid 0.5 percent and housing costs fell 0.1 percent. ``It supports the Fed's own internal forecast that over the next six months inflation should grind a little bit lower,'' said Cary Leahey, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. ``That supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year.'' Fed officials last week held overnight borrowing costs at a 1958 low of 1 percent and said they could keep rates low ``for a considerable period'' given the absence of inflation, relatively high unemployment and lots of untapped industrial capacity. MANUFACTURING, HOUSING LEAP The Fed said on Tuesday U.S. factories, mines and utilities raised production by 0.9 percent last month, the biggest gain in four years. The rise in output helped take up some of the economy's slack as industries operated at 75.7 percent of full capacity last month, their fastest pace since September 2002 but a level still shy of what economists view as inflationary. ``We're still a long way from levels that are going to threaten resources,'' said David Sloan, an economists with 4Cast Ltd. in New York. ``There is still some slack in the economy.'' Manufacturers boosted output by 0.9 percent, the latest in a string of signs showing the long-embattled sector, which has shed jobs for 40 straight months, on the rebound. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed groundbreaking for new homes unexpectedly jumped 4.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.070 million units last month, the fastest pace since February 1984. A record rate of starts for single-family homes lay behind the surge. However, permits for future construction, an indication of builder confidence, fell 5.4 percent. As for the current account gap, a report from the Commerce Department showed it shrank more than economists had expected, coming in at $135.0 billion in the third quarter from an upwardly revised $139.4 billion in the second quarter. Economists have said the widening of the current account deficit in previous quarters had contributed to a slide in the value of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies.