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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (24312)	12/16/2003 11:19:17 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 60323

it's the collective wisdom of the market. It's seldom wrong. Actually, John, I think "it" is frequently "wrong," if you can apply that term (or the term "right") to an abstract entity like "Mr. Market"--whoops there I go again<g>. I know the economists do it all the time, but that doesn't mean they right to do so. The market goes up and down, it overshoots all the time both ways. How can "it" be seldom wrong? But of course you have the esteemed discipline of economics on your side, so who am I to dispute them?

To: Road Walker who wrote (24312)	12/17/2003 1:51:34 AM
From: limtex	Respond to of 60323

JF - 1. It was priced for a company growing at the rate it is and still is and will continue into next year and 2005 at least. 2. LEXR tanked so did most of the semis but most of them aren't doing as well as SNDK nor do they have their prospects which is why the surprise around here. 3. Almost exactly the same thing happened including a secondary at almost exactly the same week as it did in 1997. See my previoous posts. It stopped on Dec 30th. Why this phenomenon I can opnly assume it is a mixture of big rise, shorts, hedgies and year end planning. The similarity and symetry are too much for co-incidence. Best, L

To: Road Walker who wrote (24312)	12/17/2003 8:15:10 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 60323

John, I disagree with your assumption that the collective wisdom is seldom wrong. Under a perfectly efficient market system, you would be right. But under a system which allows distortions through the distribution of questionable information, the market is imperfect, and we are seeing an example of that. Even with a commodity (and the high end of flash memory is still not in that commodity class), a company can't just jump into the market. At best, it will find a chip supplier in Korea or Taiwan, or possibly China, and then it will use one of a number of acceptable designs that don't infringe on existing patents. Then it will have to find customers and set up a distribution system. All this takes time and at least some know how. Theoretically the last person to build a fab has the advantage of the most efficient producdtion. Well, that appears to be SanDisk and Toshiba with their proposed 300 mm fab. They are currently the lowest cost producer, or as close to the lowest as necessary to compete in a growing market. If SanDisk can't make money in this so-called commodity market, then nobody, least of all a newcomer, can do business profitably. No, the item referenced earlier in Briefing.com is a classic example of an attempt (successful so far) to manipulate the price of the stock in order to get an advantageous buying or selling point. We've seen this before in the case of QUALCOMM, and we've seen some of those responsible for touting in their own interest apprehended by the NY Attorney General (not the SEC, of course, which is supposed to do the job). Why do I suggest this is nothing more than a manipulation? Two reasons. Show me any data you can find that points to a future profit squeeze for SanDisk. Show me any data you can find that any other company (except possibly Samsung) would be in a position to cut into SNDK/Toshiba profits. Art

To: Road Walker who wrote (24312)	12/17/2003 10:07:54 AM
From: Bruno Cipolla	Respond to of 60323

re: equipment and process "the last guy to build a fab buys the most efficient equipment and process, and has the lowest COGS" i thought that "process" is specific to a manufacturer, i.e. it is not just 90nm or 70 or so, and, sometimes even patented. Am i Wrong? BTW in this article "Shares of SanDisk, Lexar Media Decline Amid Concerns" biz.yahoo.com there is the following phrase: "while SanDisk is stuck with the more expensive Toshiba chips and more competitive pressure." More expensive? B.