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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (3507)	12/17/2003 7:49:23 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Daily Treasury Statement: wages and salaries (under lab tools fourth from the top): It's instructive to note that the current quarter from Oct. 1st through Dec. 15th, shows a decline of 3.0% (279,016 vs 287,598) year over year versus the same period in 2002. Would suggest a far weaker job market than Wall Street and others claim (lots of pom poms). Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs adds 4.0% to this -3% number to reflect the tax cuts (and additional borrowings to pay for it), so that's been about the only saving grace for the US consumer. The labor market itself is incredibly weak. Yet personal consumption in the 3rd quarter showed an increase of 5.44%. One would have to conclude that most of this was from borrowed funds taken during the first half refi boom? Incidentally, the Treasury (source 12/15 DTS) already has a deficit in this period of $152.4 billion, and the quarter isn't even over yet. The twin deficits are now running solidly over a $1.1 trillion annualized pace, over 10% of GDP.