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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (121761)	12/17/2003 6:13:35 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 281500

Hawk, I dont think anyone is arguing that oil supply is going to disappear. The argument is that the supply curve produced for the USA by Hubbert has been repeated in a similar manner in several other countries. One big similar curve can be expected for the whole planet. You argument about price supports the declining supply model to some degree. When the incremental supply is much more costly demand will go down. Demand will be sensitive to the very high costs of the tar sand recovery. There will be a peak, there will be a summit, but the question is what will the decline look like. I believe we are within a 2-3 mbpd of the peak global production and would not be surprised if we stayed on a summit for 5-10 years with the cost of production getting higher and higher. The supply of oil is not infinite and the laws of economics (elasticity of demand) will apply.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (121761)	12/17/2003 6:40:38 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

This report takes into account the non conventional oils. I can tell you relying on the US government or OPEC reports for good statistics will get you in trouble. The government had been predicting large increases in natural gas over the last few years and much lower prices. They still cannot come to grips with what is happening. Several publicly traded companies and analysts from investment firms have been making much more accurate predictions. Now after some of his recent expectations expressed in the media for this Winter have been dashed, we have the Secretary Abraham DOE today quoting energy analysts from Raymond James. Because the DOE EIA cannot get a grip on energy supply demand balance. hubbert.mines.edu

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (121761)	12/17/2003 7:08:15 PM
From: Noel de Leon	Respond to of 281500

"Hubbert had the advantage of possessing well defined datum about US oil reserves and production, which made his ability to predict a US production peak easier." And he was mocked for his prediction. As to the tar sand and heavy oil resources I suggest you read Hubbert's peak to see an alternative view point. "...the original discussion was about global oil production, not merely one segment of an already heavily explored and exploited part of the planet (the US)." Wrong The subject is: Will world oil production peak in the next 10 years? To support my affirmative answer I brought chapter 1 of the book Hubbert's Peak forward which takes the techniques used by Hubbert in the 50's to predict a peak in US oil production in the 70's and uses these techniques to predict when world oil production will peak. "I'm NOT even attempting to claim that the US will ever resume previous production levels. I think that's a given." This was neither said nor implied in my posts. Not relevant. "So are you REALLY going to sit there with a straight face and try and convince us that we're running out of oil?" Never said that. As I said before you read a post(article) as the devil reads the Bible. I say that as world oil production reaches a peak along with increasing demand things will change radically for the western world. Since it takes about 10 years to bring new oil resources on-line and since the production techniques are not cost effective yet, one can expect serious problems in the immediate future.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (121761)	12/17/2003 7:25:27 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Re Saudi Oil and Gas Production. Good grief, the true extent does not become visible before reading your referenced article. 58 inch pipelines? Zonkers With the world economy running on oil, it is no wonder that with Saddam living just across the border he was a threat (to the world) He wanted missiles especially, and with those he could put half of the SA production out of business in hours Hard to say why major European countries could not recognize the size of the wrench he could have have put into their economic gears. Had Saddam kept Kuwait and then threatened SA. Japan and S Korea have done so, and are sending troops-recognizing the importance of stability in the area to their countries welfare. Perhaps the UN did recognize that Saddam had to change his tune, and was in agreement with 17 resolutions. But no enforcement. It is politically incorrect to call for a regime change purely on economic interests. However much it is justified, it would not have been a saleable position. Sig@rightwarformanyreasons,com

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (121761)	12/17/2003 9:17:17 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Cheap oil and cheap money are the two main driving forces in US economy. It is not about supply per se, it is about supply at what price.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (121761)	12/17/2003 10:05:11 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hawk here is the article I cited earlier. The government will have a hard time keeping a lid on Hubberts peak. Cold Temperatures Behind Strong Gas Demand By Debra Marks WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) - U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said Wednesday that recent cold temperatures in the U.S. are contributing to strong demand for natural gas. But he said that hoped-for new gas supplies aren't coming on stream as quickly as anticipated. "Earlier and extended cold temperatures throughout many parts of the country seem to have accelerated the cyclical demand for natural gas," he said, speaking at a summit on liquified natural gas. "The increased drilling we have seen since last spring isn't having the effect we had hoped." Abraham said that according to an analysis from Raymond James & Associates, production is down, despite more wells being drilled. Abraham stressed once again the need to pass comprehensive energy legislation in the U.S. Congress to strengthen the U.S.' long-term energy position. "If Congress passes the energy bill, we can look forward to a day when the likelihood of these price spikes is greatly alleviated," he said. "Until that happens we should all be taking actions that can ameliorate these episodic bouts of high prices and short supply." © 2003 Dow Jones Newswires.