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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (1542)	12/18/2003 1:33:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3432

Dow is showing clear signs of a rounded top but it might take a few months to come apart interesting interview of Ed Hyman today he is one of the very few respected economists most are merely political apologists commenting on the economy he had much to say in a short time mostly positive and encouraging he expects consumer price inflation to remain tame in 2004 he believes rising commodity prices will be offset by China's low-cost exports to the USA he believes unless the USDollar falters badly and suddenly, all will be well in our economy he expects bonds to continue to do well, unless CPI rises that is really an empty statement he made no comment on the burgeoning flow of credit and its minimal payoffs $7 new dollars of money & credit to produce $1 new GDP now the historical mean was about 1.4 to 1.5 for decades this indicates what I call "spinning gears" which eventually creates a climate whereby foreign investors pull out and create a shock wave from a liquidity vacuum, in response to dangerous levels of debt buildup just like in Argentina WE ARE DANGEROUSLY INCREASING DEBTS IN THE USA, WORSE THAN IN 2000 although Hyman is respected, and has gotten much right recently, he somehow gets suckered into the view that rising commodity prices offsets continued poor pricing power in my book, they screams out PROFIT SQUEEZE so many pseudo-economists today regard inflation and deflation very incorrectly monetary inflation does not offset price deflation they do not cancel out, since they appear and arrive in different places how do rising copper and natgas prices restore pricing power for office furniture makers who compete with China ??? how do rising soybean and wheat prices restore pricing power for farmers ??? THE ACHILLES HEEL OF US ECONOMISTS IS THEIR ENTIRE CONCEPTION OF INFLATION they view inflation as some sort of commodity without location they incorrectly define it they improperly attribute its causes and effects rising prices does not constitute inflation falling prices does not constitute deflation any more than lying on your lawn in summertime should be attributed to falling off a ladder I agree with you about an unimpressive stock market recently the stock market ignored the bond shock in July I think they now overlook the rising Asian import price threat can anyone fully explain why WalMart is sluggish here? I think it is partly a tired consumer and toppy sales but also the imminent rise in all Chinese import prices with the JYen up 105 since summer, Asian price inflation is soon to arrive and surprise hapless economist hacks an interesting sideshow statistic was ignored early this week import price inflation was +0.4% in October export price inflation was +0.5% in October so where is this heralded price advantage for US exporters? it is nowhere, since their production costs are rising this has been my central point all summer and autumn: rising commodity prices, rising energy prices, rising Asian import prices, these will render the declining USDollar advantage as nil to our exporters, even as it further squeezes corporate profits and household budgets our mfrs are now subjected to rising production costs, which neutralizes the currency exchange advantage take it easy I check your stuff once in a while and thought I would drop by / jim