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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gamesmistress who wrote (20345)	12/18/2003 1:29:42 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793696

Strong Kerry push may earn him anti-Dean title By DAVID YEPSEN Register Political Columnist 12/18/2003 HORSE-RACE JOURN- ALISM - In recent days, most of the political talk has been about former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean: his rise in the polls, the energy of his insurgency, Al Gore's endorsement, and what, if anything, the capture of Saddam Hussein means for his anti-war candidacy. There's another political story developing in Iowa: the improving position of John Kerry. The Massachusetts senator has been quietly doing things here that are improving his caucus prospects. Evidence of his success comes in a Pew Research poll released 10 days ago. That survey of likely caucus-goers showed Dean with 29 percent, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 21 percent, Kerry at 18 percent and John Edwards at 5 percent. In other words, Kerry is within 3 points of Gephardt for second. If Kerry were to upset Gephardt for second place, that would amount to one of those "unexpectedly strong finishes" that dominates news coverage on caucus night. Many in the political community "expect" Dean or Gephardt to win and the other to come in second. If Gephardt finishes second, goes this conventional wisdom, he's a gonner because he won Iowa in 1988 and will have failed to repeat the feat. A second-place finish for Kerry would be a legitimate Big Deal and would position him as the anti-Dean candidate in the race. Kerry would become the "comeback kid" of 2004, something Bill Clinton was able to spin out of his second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary in 1992. There is much positive buzz surrounding a candidate who comes from behind to win that designation. Kerry's campaign has a similar poll. It is circulating a Mellman Group survey done for its campaign that shows Dean at 28 percent, Kerry at 24 percent and Gephardt at 23 percent. Kerry also shows up as the second-choice candidate of a lot of Democrats, which is a good sign for Kerry if their first-choice candidate should falter. Ordinarily, campaign polls such as this are much discounted as so much spin by journalists, and this one would be if it weren't for the confirmation provided by the independent Pew survey. Since 80 percent of New Hampshire voters decide whom to support after Jan. 1, a second-place finish would have "huge repercussions for our campaign," according to a memo from Kerry's polling firm. Kerry's people are taking a risk in crowing about their improving prospects in Iowa. By doing so, no one in political journalism may be surprised by his finish, thereby making it difficult for these same writers to describe an "unexpectedly strong" finish. But Kerry's folks figure they have little to lose by talking about their gains. They have been hammered for so long with bad news - stories about shake-ups in the campaign and his unfocused speeches - that they need a little good news to juice up supporters and attract others. What has Kerry been doing to move up? Working the fundamentals, that's all. He's been spending a lot more time in Iowa (which he should have done from the beginning) and impresses caucus-goers with his brains, experience and level-headed manner. His campaign staffers are a seasoned lot who execute well on the daily details of signing up caucus-goers. He's increased the number of television commercials. Answers that used to be 500 words are down to 250. He's a combat veteran, an important quality given that the Republicans will go after any Democratic candidate - especially Dean, who didn't go to Vietnam or serve in the military at all - for being weak on defense. Dean is downplaying Saddam's capture. He said on Monday in Los Angeles that the apprehension "could have taken place six months ago." Six months ago? (It'll be interesting to interview the guys who were in on the capture to see why they've been holding back.) This off-the-cuff remark is the sort of quip Dean's supporters love yet prompts others to question his temperament and judgment. After all, if President Bush were truly playing politics with Saddam's capture, wouldn't he have waited until closer to the November election to unveil this prize? Polls taken after Saddam's capture continue to show Americans aren't downplaying the apprehension, nor are they as cynical. A CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday shows 58 percent of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing, compared to 52 percent who thought that before the capture. Before the apprehension, Americans disapproved of Bush"s handling of Iraq by a 48-45 margin. Today they approve, 59 percent to 35 percent. The capture appears to have reduced Iraq as a political issue, according to the survey. Before Saddam was nabbed, 15 percent of Americans said Iraq was the most important issue they wanted presidential candidates to discuss. Today, it's down to 6 percent. But the issue of the economy and jobs has increased from 22 percent to 25 percent, and that should give guys like Kerry and Gephardt even more hope as they take on Dean's legions. desmoinesregister.com