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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Libbyt who wrote (49687)	12/18/2003 2:15:08 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

>>Do you have any thoughts about the "rumor" of GERN being purchased by Roche? It was reported yesterday as a rumor that Roche would pay $24-27 a share for GERN. It seems to make "sense" since Roche is based in Switzerland, and sells its products to 150 countries. The "stem cell" controversial issues would seem to be a "non-issue" if Geron was part of Roche.<< It's possible. Roche is willing to make early stage deals, but I think they'd wait for more data first. They didn't take KOSN's epothilone program until some definite phase I data was in. GERN is only midway through a PI of its cancer vaccine, and they've seen encouraging biomarker data, but haven't supplied any data yet as to responses. I don't think Roche has much experience with vaccines, but I could be wrong about that. There are certainly other pharmas -- like Aventis -- with more experience. As for the stem cell issues, they'd have to move those operations out of this country to avoid our regulations, and that doesn't seem practical to me. I think it is unlikely, especially in the next few months, and perhaps more plausible after that. The price range represents quite a premium -- AMEV, a company with more advanced development programs and a less advanced PR department, was taken out for 50%. This is 150%. Sounds like the usual pumping associated with GERN to me. I've learned the hard way to stay away from GERN; it handed me my ass when I was short a few months ago, and they announced their interim PI data. No responses, just promising biomarker action ==> a quick double. Anyhow, the munch is plausible, but who knows? >>Congratulations....I saw the post where you won the Biotech Stock Picking Contest for 2003! What a fantastic record of biotech stocks you picked!!!< Blushes. Aw, shucks. Thanks. My real life year wasn't quite that good (in part thanks to the above mentioned GERN short). The charity receiving the winnings was definitely in need, being affected by state budget cuts. Perhaps this will help my karma a bit, if nothing else. Cheers, Tuck