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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (3869)	12/18/2003 4:44:54 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 4912

Date: Thu Dec 18 2003 16:16 trotsky (Hambone@the Fed) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved 'I'd fully expect the Fed to bring all its guns to bear in such a situation.' this is of course true, but as a general remark, don't overestimate them. they're just a gaggle of bureaucrats, and will have the whole big bad market arrayed against them. no economic central planning agency has ever been consistently successful - the only 'success' they can point to is that they have managed to avert a total catastrophe THUS FAR. but what have they wrought by doing so? they have created a monster, plain and simple. the biggest mountain of debt the world has ever seen...surrounded by a pile of derivatives with notional values of some 420% of global GDP. 'too big to fail' situations will morph into 'too big to bail' ones soon enough imo. Date: Thu Dec 18 2003 16:38 trotsky (January crude) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved new life-of-contract high, 4 bucks above its Iraq war high ( of course not on the continuous contract chart, since crude has been in backwardation for several years now ) . a word re. the backwardation: it is often said that backwardation is an 'end-of-bull market' phenomenon. this hasn't been true for crude oil though, as the 'here and now' spot supplies simply keep plunging ( along with global production ) for 3 years running now, which leaves us currently with the lowest crude inventories since the early 70's. even the slightest supply disruption at this stage and you can trash the SUVs.