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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3656)	12/19/2003 6:33:34 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Agree this is bogus piece by Kasriel, I thought he was a little better analyst than this. The "China Symbiosis" stuff is especially weak. He acts like a hot Chinese economy is something brand new. The much more coherent CI gave data on the huge Chinese inventory build that's already taken place on page 12 of the 12/11 issue. Then the 11/18 issue connects the dots on Kasriel's bogus claim by presenting (pages 2 and 3)an up to date export growth (feeble) graphic for the US. Any thinking person would have to ask what's going to change in 2004, versus what should have been a big export year to China (or Chinese suppliers) in 2003? What do we have that they need? Food, primarily. And financial Old Maid cards. At least his final paragraph warns of what I think will really happen in 2004. China Inventories By Component Classification Yr/Yr Rate of Change (October) Tech, Machinery, & Transport Equip. 20.3% Plastics 17.9 Smelting Metals 14.5 Pharmeceuticals 13.0 Tobacco, Timber, Power Products, Furniture, 11.8 Paper 10.1 Chemical and Petro Products 9.4 Rubber & Chemical Fibers 3.7 Food/Beverage 3.5 Mining 3.0 Apparel 2.9 TOTAL 12.4