I don't understand your post. For example what boomers are you talking about? European boomers? Chinese boomers?
Methinks thou doth protest too much, sir. Demographics are destiny not only in the U.S. but also in Japan and Europe. All OECD nations are aging rapidly and will be disinvesting within a few years. This is going to put governments into the very awkward position of attempting to float trillions and trillions of dollars and other currency debt. The effect of excessive supply of debt instruments will necessarily drive their price down and yield up. In this sort of a fiscal climate, I can see the private sector financial market suffering from some severe dislocations.
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Re: And if US "boomers" dump the Dow-Jones stocks how does that affect us who don't invest in the US?
Mr. Van Winkle, perhaps you've been asleep for the past four decades. Let me assure you, the financial market is now a global affair, the casino is open 24/7/365. There is no escape. When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold.
I'm not certain of my figures on the value of the U.S. markets as a percentage of world markets, but it must be above 25% of the valuation of the world's financial markets. So, when the U.S. starts to contract in a few years, it's going to squeeze the entire planet. Your point about some early retirees already drawing down their capital is welll taken. But when we look at the coming demographic shift, we can conclusively say "you ain't seen nuttin' yet!"
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Re: Never mind about 2008, TEOTWAWKI will come sooner than that.
Certainly not in 2004. This will be a very good year for the markets because Greenspan will be goosing the monetary side and Bush will be goosing the fiscal side. They want to retain power. The best way to do that is to flood the zone and make sure there is a wonderful illusion of prosperity through November, 2004. After that, the bill may come due. So, I think we have another year at least before the stuff really hits the fan.
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Re: Did you see Bush's statement about Libya?
I hate it when people do that. Now I've got to work:
guardian.co.uk
Text of Bush Libya WMD Announcement
Saturday December 20, 2003 12:01 AM
By The Associated Press
A text of President Bush on Friday as transcribed by the White House:
"Good evening. I have called you here today to announce a development of great importance in our continuing effort to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. [[RGD: Guffaw!]] Today in Tripoli, the leader of Libya, Col. Moammar al-Ghadafi, publicly confirmed his commitment to disclose and dismantle all weapons of mass destruction programs in his country. He has agreed immediately and unconditionally to allow inspectors from international organizations to enter Libya. These inspectors will render an accounting of all nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs and will help oversee their elimination. Col. Ghadafi's commitment, once it is fulfilled, will make our country more safe and the world more peaceful.
Talks leading to this announcement began about nine months ago when Prime Minister Tony Blair and I were contacted through personal envoys by Col. Ghadafi. He communicated to us his willingness to make a decisive change in the policy of his government. At the direction of Col. Ghadafi, himself, Libyan officials have provided American and British officers with documentation on that country's chemical, biological, nuclear and ballistic missile programs and activities. Our experts in these fields have met directly with Libyan officials to learn additional details.
Opposing proliferation is one of the highest priorities of the war against terror. The attacks of September the 11th, 2001 brought tragedy to the United States and revealed a future threat of even greater magnitude. Terrorists who killed thousands of innocent people would, if they ever gained weapons of mass destruction, kill hundreds of thousands - without hesitation and without mercy."
[[RGD: Fearmongering Propaganda, endlessly repeated for the small minded. Here's what Hitler taught Bush: "The size of a lie is a definite factor in causing it to be believed, for the vast masses of a nation are in the depths of their hearts more easily deceived than consciously and intentionally bad. The primitive simplicity of their minds renders them a more easy prey to a big lie than a small one, for they themselves often tell little lies but would be ashamed to tell big ones."
Adolf Hitler, writing in Mein Kampf
"The receptivity of the great masses is very limited, their intelligence small, but their power of forgetting is enormous. In consequence of these facts, all effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and
must harp on these in slogans until the last member of the public understands..." -- Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, pp. 180-181.
BUSH: And this danger is dramatically increased when regimes build or acquire weapons of mass destruction and maintain ties to terrorist groups.
The United States and our allies are applying a broad and active strategy to address the challenges of proliferation, through diplomacy and through the decisive actions that are sometimes needed. We've enhanced our intelligence capabilities in order to trace dangerous weapons activities. [[RGD: After your fiasco in Iraq, I sure hope so!]] We've organized a proliferation security initiative to interdict dangerous materials and technologies in transit. We've insisted on multilateral approaches like that in North Korea to confront threats. We are supporting the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency to hold the Iranian regime to its treaty obligations.
We obtained an additional United Nations Security Council Resolution requiring Saddam Hussein to prove that he had disarmed, and when that resolution was defied, we led a coalition to enforce it. All of these actions by the United States and our allies have sent an unmistakable message to regimes that seek or possess weapons of mass destruction. Those weapons do not bring influence or prestige. They bring isolation and otherwise unwelcome consequences.
And another message should be equally clear: leaders who abandon the pursuit of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them, will find an open path to better relations with the United States and other free nations. With today's announcement by its leader, Libya has begun the process of rejoining the community of nations. And Col. Ghadafi knows the way forward. Libya should carry out the commitments announced today. Libya should also fully engage in the war against terror. Its government, in response to the United Nations Security Council Lockerbie demands, has already renounced all acts of terrorism and pledged cooperation in the international fight against terrorism. We expect Libya to meet these commitments, as well.
As the Libyan government takes these essential steps and demonstrates its seriousness, its good faith will be returned. Libya can regain a secure and respected place among the nations, and over time, achieve far better relations with the United States. The Libyan people are heirs to an ancient and respected culture, and their country lies at the center of a vital region. As Libya becomes a more peaceful nation, it can be a source of stability in Africa and the Middle East.
Should Libya pursue internal reform, America will be ready to help its people to build a more free and prosperous country. Great Britain shares this commitment, and Prime Minister Blair and I welcome today's declaration by Col. Ghadafi. Because Libya has a troubled history with America and Britain, [[RGD: Guffaw! See Below.]] we will be vigilant in ensuring its government lives up to all its responsibilities. Yet, as we have found with other nations, old hostilities do not need to go on forever. And I hope that other leaders will find an example in Libya's announcement today.
Our understanding with Libya came about through quiet diplomacy. [[RGD: Nonsense, strong-arm bullying forced Kaddafi to capitulate to a false charge.]] It is a result, however, of policies and principles declared to all. Over the last two years, a great coalition of nations has come together to oppose terror and to oppose the spread of weapons of mass destruction. We've been clear in our purposes. We have shown resolve. In word and in action, we have clarified the choices left to potential adversaries. And when leaders make the wise and responsible choice, when they renounce terror and weapons of mass destruction, as Col. Ghadafi has now done, they serve the interest of their own people and they add to the security of all nations.
Thank you.
END BUSHIT
I just about can't take this any more. Kaddafi was targetted by the U.S. and the UK because he was unwilling to play along with the Western corporations in exploiting the oil resources of Libya for the sake of a tiny oligopoly in Libya and the greedy Western corporations. The underlying reason for all the hostility is that Kaddafi nationalized the oil industry in Libya and expropriated Oxy Pete and a few other players. We're engaged in nothing right now other than exacting a punishment on Kaddafi for having the gall to put his people's welfare ahead of the interests of Western corporations. It's pathetic how badly Bush and the American media misrepresent our controversy with Libya.
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Re: The expense of "cleaning" out the Arab and Persian world will sink the US economy before 2008, IMO.
Nonsense. The U.S. is capable of getting into much worse financial straits before things really come unglued. There really is no problem today with servicing our debts. Since almost all of the borrowing by the Treasury is being done using T-bills rather than LT bonds, the debt service (federal interest outlay) for 2002 is $333 Billion gross and only $171 Billion net. FY 2003 is projected to be even less. Only $155 Billion net. This is entirely manageable within a $2.2 Trillion Federal budget.
Source: cbo.gov
Methinks thou doth protest to much about our imminent Wile E. Coyote moment. Not before 2005 do we have anything, anything at all to worry about. Rove doesn't want another messy war before the election. He wants the economy to be roaring. And Bush wants to just keep lying 'til the cows come in. Life is good. :) |
