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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: que seria who wrote (43705)	12/20/2003 8:52:16 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Que seria, <<either your CAD cash/equity allocation is quite low, or I'm dancing on a precipice … So your cash position of CAD 17.9% is probably champing at the bit to ride … >> Please excuse me in advance for long post. At each year-end, even though I realize that there is no magical dividing line between one calendar year and the next for portfolio, I do reset my NAV gain/loss counter to zero, ruminate over the issues that might materially impact the hoard, and try to figure out what, if any, counter-measures to take. The post Message 19615694 you responded to is the beginnings of exercise for 2004. My 2003 beginning of the year situation was so Message 18388681 , and as you can see, in the course of 2003, the net net of all my zigs and zags achamchen.com effectively is simply to move some chips from bonds to other energy shares, and relocate a portion of Euro cash to CAD money. I know my cash allocation is higher than most folks I know, and as I pointed out in my subsequent post to Ray, Message 19615893 <<I generally aim for 11% return year on year ... My point of staying in cash is that it is maximally flexible, as it crouches in a dark corner, scoping through the rifle attachment down at the melee on the plain below. I am willing to move that cash around as I deem cautious or adventurous.>> I admit that the lure of pouring the fresh troops on to the Canadian energy fields is very potent; the Force is strong and the looting prospect intoxicating. Take this counter for example uk.finance.yahoo.com (currently at 0.49% allocation of my gross asset), at 18+% distribution rate, is leveraged on some debt, backed by some diversified blue-chip energy trust holdings, a practically usurious positive carry over Greensputin’s outrageous discount rate, and paid in a strengthening currency, in a rising underlying energy market that will presumably be reflected in bullish share price! I mean, gad, a man can go mad just thinking about Energy Split day after night after day; that and some ex-girlfriends from high school days beckoning from a South Seas island ;0) *<<50% in Canadian juniors ... is pretty wet>>* … yikes, yes, I think so. I must settle for getting my thrills some other way. If I were allocated thus I would be puking until I am throwing up air, every hour, on the hour, and have to be drugged to a comatose state so that I do not pull my hair out :0) For me, a 50% allocation to anything says I know what will happen, and I rarely do. I consider my riskiest gamble right now to be uk.finance.yahoo.com at 0.24% allocation of gross asset ;0) My last 24 hours of thinking about forward direction for 2004 yields the outlines of a wish: (yes, man make plans and god is laughing; and the best war plan cannot survive the first encounter in battle) (a) Buy more paper gold using borrowed HKD on presumably imminent gold correction; (b) Pay back HKD loan as gold and CAD cash inevitably rises against USD/HKD once more, thus reducing exposure to CAD cash which is just another fiat currency, and one more roped in with the USD than not; (c) Buy more dividend-paying resources and China shares when sentiment turns negative, however briefly, at the moment of maximum panic over supposedly impending China correction, so as to get out of ultimately all trashed cash; (d) Start the short put option game on non-USD and dividend-paying resource/energy shares now, since (a) rising currency exchange rate, (b) firm commodity pricing, and (c) bullish sentiment over things will fix all mistakes and accidents; and (e) When interest rate turns up (if it ever does;0), then move courageously back into cash in some modulated fashion and start shopping for positive yielding trashed real estate by and by. I am figuring that the current cycle will eventually see us forced to gobble up some flavor of debt-engendered and energy crisis augmented economic depression flavored with a hint of stagflation and decorated with global currency regime change. I am guessing that the process will neither be pretty to look at nor pleasant to experience. I am fearful that even if my horrid vision does not come to pass, the fear of it may materialize, exacting a substantive toll on our basket of goodies just the same. Having just thought aloud on all of the above, it does seem that I still have some room for Canadian energy shares allocation ;0) and so I thank you for your response that triggered my examination of fears, phobias, and preferences. Chugs, Jay