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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave who wrote (24381)	12/20/2003 6:19:39 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Dave, at the risk of getting too far afield from the issues directly affecting SanDisk, I can only point out that your own information sources seem to be questionable. Nokia attempted to use its own chip in a CDMA handset and later recalled the entire model because of problems. Nokia was forced to use QCOM chips, which were sold not to Nokia directly but to a Chinese company working with Nokia (and also licensed by QCOM). As to the percentage of patents that really prove valuable, the average is probably not a useful statistic because of the huge variations from that average. My son has 12 patents and all of them are now producing revenue. That's 12 out of 12. SanDisk and Toshiba jointly own and operate a fabrication facility, with each company contributing its specialty. I am sure that the companies you mention, such as Micron, have a lot of practical experience, but not necessarily in making the kind of chips used in flash memory. Even Intel was unable to produce a competitive flash memory unit, despite its having made valuable discoveries in multilevel cell fabrication, which SanDisk adapted and made work for its double density chips. A company just doesn't start making NAND chips from scratch. The growth in demand is now concentrated in NAND chips. There is likely to be a glut of NOR chips now or in the near future. Most of the analysts covering SanDisk don't even know the difference between NAND and NOR, so how could anyone give them credibility? If you don't like the QCOM--SNDK comparison, then consider the variable speed windshield wiper, now used in almost every automobile. There are plenty of ways to make windshield wipers that work at varying speeds, but the one which works best happens to be patented, as GM, Ford, and several others found to their disbelief, and ended up paying royalties to the inventor. I could go on, but in this case I think I'm talking to a stone wall. Art

To: Dave who wrote (24381)	12/20/2003 6:54:22 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Dave, wouldn't it be unusual that STM, Hynix or Micron would wait... ...this long before entering the NAND flash market if they had the goods? It would be my guess that SNDK has at least a few key patents that they would be interested in licensing. SNDK has already brought Toshiba, Hitachi and Samsung (twice) to their knees and have quite successful, revenue generating agreements that are ongoing. I also have some doubt that the migration to ultra-high density NAND will occur without some hard knocks along the way. What I mean is that all the current NAND players had a learning curve even with expertise in the area. I find it hard to conceive that you can just plunk down a fab, flip a switch and 2 gigabit NAND starts flowing out the other end. The comparisons with DRAM are well taken, but I am not sure all the same arguments apply. I think there is a moat around SNDK, Toshiba, Samsung and Hitachi which will serve as a barrier to entry to would-be competitors. Also, the total market for NAND is not known. The technologies that use NAND storage are all new, nascent or undiscovered at this point. Portable electronics are the future. I think that goes without saying. And NAND is the enabling technology that fuels them. This is far from over. Ain't it exciting??? Aus