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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (3692)	12/20/2003 9:45:27 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

How much longer can prices for finished goods remain depressed in face of massive recent increases in raw material price? Which way will it break? Either commodities will crash down or the finished product price must rise. I think it depends upon consumer demand. Make your own judgment. For a long time IMO. When wages in China are $1 per hour or whatever, we will keep losing jobs to them. As long as we can not afford to pay them they will keep prices low. If they hike, we stop buying. The party ends when China is capable of a self sustaining growth on its own accord and is no longer dependeant on the US. If someone raises prices NOW, no one will buy (not here). US consumers simply are at or extremely near the point of debt limits. How is raising prices going to help? It can't and prices will not be raised. The hole FN house of cards collapses in a huge deflationary crash here, the only question is timing. What happens in China is more subjhect to debate. It is clear IMO that the US is at the very pinacle, right now, of its economic and military power. There is nowhere to go but down. How quickly that plays out (and it may take a decade but China is patient), is anyones guess. Our standard of living falling is baked in stone. There is too much debt to inflate away given current job status that is NOT going to change, but ACCELERATE into more job losses. Every service that can possible be outsourced overseas will head there. Tech is well underway, call centers well underway, accountaing not really started yet. Whay do we need bookeeepers here. We do not. More jobs will be lost. It is already happening even in places like the medical field that people thought was untouchable. WE ship xrays via the internet overseas for evaluation by a doctor at far less prices than we pay our doctors here. Boom. Another job lost. Anything that can go will go. It is going to get butt ugly, and if housing goes it is game set match. That is another reason why interest rates will stay low. Hikes will kill housing. At some point it all goes to hell anyway cause JOBS are NOT coming back. That is the answer to this mess. Loss of jobs is hugely deflationary and job gains at McDonalds does not cut it. Deflation is GUARANTEED. M

To: philv who wrote (3692)	12/21/2003 2:46:57 AM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 110194

You really think the Euro Zone CBs really care about the US. And Japan and China. They only care to meet their own agendas. Once China has built its manufacturing and once Europe has a strong Euro, once Japan is shipping more product to Asia and Europe, they will not care about the US.......... The EuroZone already has a GDP greater than the US, it is approaching 500M people, with what 300M in the US. No the CBs will leave America out to dry at some point in the next decade. In that there is no question, I mean look at the Bush arrogance toward Germany and France - you think that CBs of Europe care about America........... So many Americans have the biggest heads and attitudes - they can't see their feet from the trees,99% do not understand the big picture of what their beloved FED is doing to them...........

To: philv who wrote (3692)	12/21/2003 8:25:52 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

>>Meantime, the debt mountain continues to grow.<< and the debt is growing is growing world wide. Each nation that can print money does it, including "Old Europe"

To: philv who wrote (3692)	12/21/2003 9:01:02 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<How much longer can prices for finished goods remain depressed in face of massive recent increases in raw material price? Which way will it break?> Absolutely correct, and here's an example in spades that illustrates this, and ironically the afflicted company, MVK operates in an area of great need (energy) as opposed to areas of glut and bubbles (like housing and construction). It's the mispriced capital and maladjusted economy at work once again. Incidentally MVK was one of the energy stocks I sold Thursday before this news hit, better to be lucky than good sometimes.: Maverick Tube Corporation Provides Clarification on Industry Wide Cost and Selling Price Increases Thursday December 18, 5:30 pm ET ST. LOUIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 18, 2003--Maverick Tube Corporation (NYSE:MVK - News) comments on unprecedented rising raw material costs and their impact on the Company's costs and selling prices. Gregg Eisenberg, Maverick's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "There certainly is a great deal of chaos going on in the steel industry currently. Significant increases in scrap and other metallic costs have caused significant increases in the selling prices of steel. These cost increases, generally in the form of surcharges to established base prices, will impact our steel costs in the coming quarters. The amount and timing of the increases are uncertain, as portions of the cost increases could prove temporary if current surcharges abate later." Eisenberg went on to say, "The cost pressures facing the steel mills are worldwide, and generally affect all of our competitors as well. In light of these cost increases, there are industry wide efforts being made to pass on such costs in a timely manner. We are following these leading price efforts and expect to pass on the anticipated cost increases on all our products. No assurance can be made as to degree and timing of such price increase efforts nor our ability to maintain our market shares in the process." Maverick Tube Corporation is a St. Louis, Missouri, based manufacturer of tubular products used in the energy industry for drilling, production, well servicing and line pipe applications, as well as industrial tubing products (HSS, electrical conduit and standard pipe) used in various applications.