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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (38753)	12/21/2003 6:31:43 AM
From: NAG1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213181

Herb <<"but I would like to make just one comment about it. World market share of computer sales is a poor measure of a company that does not compete in every part of that sector. It's somewhat like saying that BMW has only 3% of the transportation market when a large part of that includes freight and mass transit.">> <<That is such a weak answer, but standard fare when there is no other way to explain the failure of Apple to gain popularity. Marketshare is the only real way to gauge acceptance for a product and it is the way others determine on whether it is worth their R & D investment toward future technology that supports the Apple line or IT dollars for future users.>>Don There are so many ways to measure market share and there are so many people with an ax to grind, while I would like to see market share numbers overall that are higher, I will settle for increased revenues and earnings. If apple's market share goes down measured by some analyst clown with an ax to grind, but it does signficantly better in revenues and earnings for sustainable reasons, which is most important? If apple were to grow market share but not grow revenues or earnings, I wouldn't want to invest in it. But if it is growing revs and earnings for sustainble reasons, I will keep my money in apple, no matter what the market share numbers say. You can ridicule g5 sales and make comments any way you like, but the fact of the matter is that apple has its best chance for real growth with its present lineup. Msft has problems with security and its new system is at least a year away, some people say 2 to 3. Apple has closed the speed gap and with ibm as its new partner, may actually open a gap of its own. Apple has some products with great general appeal that is bringing people to its stores and at least taking a look at its products. And the g5's are selling well, at least for now, not matter how you slice it. I don't see these as problems, especially since we are heading potentially into a tech recovery. Apple has a nice lineup with its best advantages that it has had in years. Again, the question is will apple be able to take advantage of these things? If you don't think so, you shouldn't be invested here. Msft, intel, dell and hp are tough competitors and have been able to stave off mass defections, but will they be able to continue to do so? And if apple only has 3 percent of the market, while 10 percent would be great for a future number, as an investor, I would be happy with 4 and 5 percent market share. There should be enough growth in revs and earnings for apple with a 1 percent increase in market share. Neal

To: Don Green who wrote (38753)	12/22/2003 12:01:49 AM
From: HerbVic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213181

Well, weak argument or not, it is none the less true. The market share numbers that put Apple at 2.5% are World computer sales. Not just box makers. There are major portions of that market in which Apple does not compete. Hence, citing Apple's 2.5% share is grossly misleading. I certainly agree with you that growing market share is a measure of growing popularity, and from the company's current position would be unquestionably important to growing net profits. I simply disagree that World computer sales is the correct market share measure. As for dying or declining base, I'm more concerned about what I term "performance saturation." The computers being sold since the turn of the millennium should satisfy the needs of the average household for years to come. Both the delta strength and delta frequency of the aggregate upgrade cycle point toward a maturing market overall. I see Apple's R&D efforts and their retail efforts as having been effective enough to increase market share in the core markets in which they participate, despite the fact that their customers (the Apple faithful) are upgrading less frequently and sometimes not at all. The conversions are important, and on the fringe of Windows loyalty, are taking place. If they weren't, Apple's sales would be down by around 25%. I guess the question on everyone's mind is wether or not Apple is building strength ahead of the reported numbers. I think they are. I also think that the marketing deals that will come with the iTunes Music will be far more valuable to Apple than just selling a few more iPods. The street will be impressed when the money shows in real numbers. Remember the summer Apple retired the bonds? HerbVic