To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (513972 ) 12/21/2003 2:19:58 PM From: Raymond Duray Respond to of 769667 Hi Lizzie, I love your optimism that we can throw the bums out. But.... there's always that but.... I tend to feel that with the economy on the mend and Bush able to control the flow of war news pretty much to suit the propaganda needs of the week and total (and I mean total) control of the nation's TV sets and radios, Bush has a bully pulpit that no Dem can hope to come close to matching. My gut tells me that Bush has about a 70% chance of re-election, all things being equal between now and November. Face reality. If Dean is the candidate, the entire DLC cabal, including the Clintonistas, McAuliffe and Al From will be working behind the scenes for Dean's defeat. Their dream is Hillary in 2008 and if Dean wins this year, he spoils the rotation that the corporations have worked out. Dean's got a real uphill battle ahead of him. Not that I don't think he can put up one heck of a fight. It's just that the media is so ridiculously unfair that it's a nearly insurmountable hurdle. ***Women especially will be the death of Bush. If Bush gets even 10% of the womens vote I will be SHOCKED. Prepare to be shocked. I have three sisters. One will vote for Bush, one for the Dem and one is a swing voter. Bush got, what? about 40% of the women's votes in 2000. If there is more anger than insecurity in November, that might go down to 35% or 32% but no lower. Remember, the media is all hype about 'soccer moms' now being 'security moms'. Bush will play the authoritarian father figure crap to the nines in the fall. He'll gather up all the undecideds and ill-informeds and weak-mindeds. They are like sheep in his hands. ***Everybody else wants this warmonger OUT. That certainly could be true in the Bay area, and I suspect it is true. But down South, they still think George is close to God. Evidence doesn't matter to most of the religious right. They believe what they believe and that is that.