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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (18233)	2/12/2004 4:54:22 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78673

Pumped up my exploratory position in GFR after earnings report today: "Carl H. Lindner, AFG Chairman and Chief Executive Officer stated, "Our shareholders' equity grew over 20% in 2003. The merger of our holding companies during the fourth quarter improved financial leverage and simplified the overall corporate structure. The sale of our remaining Infinity shares gave us substantial cash, providing both liquidity at the holding company and growth opportunities for our insurance operations. In addition, we have completed several debt refinancing transactions, totaling over $300 million, with proceeds being used primarily to retire higher coupon trust preferred securities and bank lines of credit. We are optimistic about our ongoing prospects for growth and profitability and remain comfortable with our 2004 core earnings guidance of $2.75 to $3.00 per share." I don't trust Carl Lindner, and I don't trust that "core earnings" are what investors will or should focus on. However, with the stock at about $17/sh., Mr. Lindner purchasing shares in the $15's, the bullish p.r., and a p/core earnings estimate of about 6 (which I find seductive), I will up my bet now. Paul Senior