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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wade who wrote (1198)	12/25/2003 9:39:40 PM
From: Wade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48092

Take a read about James Turk's long term view of Rand: goldmoney.com 24 December 2003 — GoldMoney Alert from James Turk Gold from a South African Perspective Gold is doing great in dollar terms, but the weakness in the US dollar has not always translated into a rising gold price in terms of other currencies. In other words, some currencies have been appreciating even faster against the dollar than gold itself. One of the stronger currencies this past year has been the South African rand. We can see from the following chart that gold in rand terms has been in a clear downtrend channel for two years. It will be interesting to see how this chart pattern is resolved. Gold seems to have good support around R80/gg. What's more, the Reserve Bank of South Africa has been lowering interest rates, so this incentive to hold rands is slowly eroding. So my expectation is that the near-term downtrend line (the red dotted line) is about to be broken, which would probably send gold to test the upper line of its downtrend channel. Also interesting is gold's long-term picture. At its current rate of R90.90/gg, gold is now 24.7% below its all-time high of R120.68/gg reached in December 2001, just two years ago. It has been a sharp correction, and the falling rand gold price has hurt the profits of the South African gold mining companies. However, the above chart shows that the long-term trend of the rand has been one ongoing decline, so betting against the rand has been a much safer approach than betting against gold. It seems safe to assume that this observation will continue to hold true. The goldgram's exchange rate against 20 of the world's major currencies - including the South African rand - is available here: goldmoney.com ___________________________________________ Published by GoldMoney Copyright © 2003. All rights reserved. Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com