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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3850)	12/24/2003 1:54:37 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

monetary inflation after shocks are the threat to LT rates as are Chinese and Asian reluctance to finance our profligate way of life we still have no violation to what I detect as a bullish Head & Shoulders pattern on the 10yr TNote yield the right shoulder is resolving now, in full conflict the upward bias neckline is what fools most chartists note the strong support at 4.0 to 4.2% for two full quarters stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G the new year, as PIMCO's McCulley expects, will be marked by consistent attacks on the bond market as LT rates rise all year long he regards rising LT rates as the primary story of 2004 all the signals are there fast rising money supply over the last three years (+35%) rising CRB commodity index falling USDollar rising energy costs these make for serious headwinds if your scenario of falling rates come to pass I am certain the USGovt will monetize the bonds and the federal deficits in order to keep the lid on LT rates BUT IN DOING SO, THEY WILL SACRIFICE THE USDOLLAR FULLY we are pressuring backdoor price inflation when it comes, it will be awwweeeeessssooooommmmmeee !!! MishMan, we are in opposition consistently on this score this is not surprising, since price inflation and price deflation are still very much in prominent position simultaneously I believe monetary inflation and its delayed after shocks will roil the bond markets all year long providing bigtime fodder for discussion it will come as a surprise, since few expect it they didnt expect a stock crush in late 2000 either the failure of the bond market will serve as the final chapter in Chairman Greenspasm's failed legacy / jim