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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (28499)	12/25/2003 12:12:36 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206316

Bearcat - My 15 day weather forecast by Accuweather is looking quite brutal in January, so I got my most desired gift. We have 3 inches of fresh snow on the ground for the second white Christmas in a row. I found plenty of Callaway items under my tree and I guess even the driving range is out of the question with all this snow. So a mild day today or tomorrow would not have been so unwelcome. The ratio of GW HDD to storage is actually looking quite bullish. I have seen enough data points that I am very comfortable with my levered long positions. Even with weather ending 3% warmer than normal I dont think we will have a problem getting under 1,000 bcf in storage by April 1. My worry is that if January NG futures spike to high we may force switching to #2 oil demand I would hope this is left to February or March if necessary. The gas consumers know now why storage was full this injection season, because of a mild Summer with low NG power generation for CDD demand.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (28499)	12/26/2003 4:15:02 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 206316

The seasonal pattern every year is for the OSX sector to sell off in January, at least through the 2nd or 3rd week. It can be as strong as a 10% sell off. However, with pricing strong and the economy on the mend, it might be less, or no sell off, but I would be surprised to see it rise right of the bat for the first couple of weeks. The sector then resumes its climb through late spring after this initial sell off. As of today I am short via puts on the OIH and also on the XLE for January. Just as the sector rose in December, it ought to fall in January on profit taking for those that will not pay taxes for another 16 months. Those are my thoughts FWIW.