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Technology Stocks : Bookham Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (302)	12/27/2003 12:55:33 PM
From: ownstock	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 376

Frank: Nice post, thanks. I agree that FTTP will be a technology of choice for greenfield. But at one of the Xmas parties, someone told me a story about moving into a million dollar townhome in Silicon Valley as recently as two years ago with FTTH as a "feature". Last month, the FTTH OEO boxes were mothballed, and an overlay of Comcast coax was put in place. It's now Fiber to the Comcast node, where it converts their fiber over to coax. The "independent" fiber equipment was too hard to maintain, and there were no video services available. Too much screwing around. So its same old story: even the best technology is just a vehicle for the business case. FTTH has to offer something to the service provider, and I do not think 90% of the customers care if it is fiber or coax: they want their MTV (and Internet) and are cutting the wires inside their own homes with 802. 802 has reached the point where an average PC-user can configure the system and the result is reasonably secure and reliable The future is 802 wireless for sure, the only issue is one of who and when. That will mean a lot of Metro fiber and routers with more bandwidth to handle the loads they will get as people move it out onto the road and change cellsites. Video and voice will converge thanks to bandwidth: I think one antenna will do the job. I also think that is where RBOCs should be spending their money. Not in me-too plays to the house. If I can see the business case, I bet they understand it too. Of course, with the feds and so much money involved, it gonna be "say one thing and do another" - always. That's gonna make it even tougher to know where to put your money. -Own