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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (3902)	12/26/2003 10:31:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

I'm expecting around $500 Gold in the first quarter of 2004. Too early There is normally a huge seasonal dip starting early to mid January. I expect this year to be no different. Let's see how far we retrace into that, or if we do. Mish

To: Rarebird who wrote (3902)	12/26/2003 10:41:25 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Of course I agree totally with your assessment. The primary question I have to ask though, is what happens when most of not all the speculators and investors on the planet are also playing this playbook. And more importantly what happens if this scenario starts to change and leaves nearly everybody offside and still playing this so called endless (or "at least to the election") reckless reflation playbook? I think the "playbook" that so many have their fortunes aligned with gets torn to bits much sooner than later, and perhaps without much warning (I see some already myself: see my posts).

To: Rarebird who wrote (3902)	12/26/2003 10:44:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

The Fed keeps interest rates at ridiculous levels... How long did Japan keep rates sub 1%? M

To: Rarebird who wrote (3902)	12/26/2003 11:13:23 AM
From: philv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"And the foreign Central Banks, especially the Asian Central Banks, keep creating vast amounts of new domestic currency in order to buy Dollars in order to recycle the Dollars back into new Treasury (and Agency) debt in order to keep the wheel turning over." That's the big picture alright, and that is the one factor enabling the FED to keep interest rates at ridiculously low levels. How long will this dance last, and when it ends, because end it must, what will the landscape look like? There is a huge transfer of wealth occurring right now, streaming out of the US. Asians and others holding US paper expect these to be real assets, redeemable at some point. As the US keeps issuing these IOUs, eagerly snapped up by foreigners, the US is gradually losing the ability to call the shots, and becomes more and more dependant upon foreigners for its economic survival. Not a pretty picture. The plan: I believe the FEDs answer is continued massive inflation or printing of dollars. The penalty for inflation is muted by the shear amount of dollars throughout the world. As the dollar becomes worth less and less, the US has an opportunity to rev up its economy and hopefully repatriate some of the debt. Question is will the world economies co-operate for the long haul. If not, default is the only option, and a New World Order will surely emerge from the economic ruins.