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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (12827)	12/28/2003 5:28:50 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95406

Slightly OT: michael, No, not back into recession! I never said anything like that!! I said a "top" where we see a substantial correction in the indexes. Believe me, if the SOX heads north for 4 more months and then backs off 15% before heading even higher, there won't be any talk of recession! For example, one POSSIBILITY could be that the market continues north into March/April and the SPX hits 1300ish, then backs off to 950-1000 before rebounding. This scenario might be a head fake for both bears and bulls as the bulls will be nervous the higher the market goes and the bears will be whiplashed on every downward (short term) setup. If the S+P keeps on truckin' for a couple more months there will be many left on the sidelines or who will get in after the bulk of this move is made. Then, a nice 15 to 20% correction to keep the bulls from getting to far ahead of themselves and giving the bears the perfect setup to get "fully loaded" before the market returns on it's upward path. This could keep many people scratching their heads. We all know the market loves to make fools out of as many as possible. Keep in mind that I am suggesting this as one possible outcome. If you are a buy and hold type, this potential scenario should not really affect your approach to the market. You should be looking for good companies that will reward their stock holders over the long haul. It might affect whether or not you buy in the next couple of months and it might not! If you are a position or swing trader, this possibility could dramatically affect your approach to the market over the next 4 to 8 months. Instead of bailing out of longs (or loading up on shorts) in Jan or Feb it might be wise to hang in there, so to speak and not overly commit to one side or the other. There are plenty of "good scenarios" that I could suggest at this time and, it's very important to realize that, none of them may come true. I pointed out this "bullish" possibility as one that very few of the "gurus" seem to be considering. I see lots of January tops and February tops but few suggesting that it may not be until April before we see a "solid" correction. I'm just trying to look at as many setups as possible. Similarly, my purpose is to encourage others to chime in and point out what they see! Where is the market headed in Jan, Feb or April? No need to be shy, even if others here may disagree. We can come back in a few months and joke about how wrong I was or how right I was... You get the point, I hope. If the market heads north another 20% higher or more (taking the SOX with it - or possibly having the SOX lead the charge north), I want to consider the possibility. I think there are plenty of reasons to be on the bullish side at this time and few reasons to be overly bearish. I'm interested in both views, especially on the bearish side because of my current bias. mh