To: OLDTRADER who wrote (173691 ) 12/27/2003 6:45:54 PM From: William F. Wager, Jr. Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387 WBM...Barron's admits it was wrong about Intel in this weeks edition... BACK IN JUNE, Intel shares seemed toppy. We theorized at the time that weak sales of motherboards pointed to disappointing microprocessor sales, and that Intel's second-quarter forecasts might prove optimistic as a result ("Chip Dip," June 2). We were wrong. Intel's earnings held up just fine -- in the second quarter and beyond. Next year, the company is expected to post earnings of $1.25 a share, up from an estimated 77 cents this year, as the personal-computer market comes back to life. Intel's shares, meanwhile, hit a November high of 34.51 -- up 65% from the time of our story -- before easing to a recent 31. What happened? Well, sales of motherboards -- the main circuit boards in computers -- aren't always a perfect indicator of chip sales. Sales of central processing units, Intel's primary product, can lag behind motherboard sales by a month or so and demand can change in the interim. Our prediction that Intel wouldn't pick up much market share since it already dominated the core processor business also failed to materialize. Delays in chip introductions by rival Advanced Micro Devices gave Intel a lift. Intel's share of worldwide microprocessor revenues grew to 83.7% in the second quarter from 82.4%, and to 84.3% by September, says research firm iSuppli. Intel could post further gains in both market share and stock price in the months ahead. The company plans to release its next-generation Pentium 4 chip in the first quarter (see Technology Trader). And heavy investments in production technology should help Intel save money in making a variety of chips. Sure, AMD has big plans to compete and has its fans. Brokerage firm First Global points out that "the Avis of the sector" is quite cheap -- trading at 16 times the firm's forecast for '05 earnings, compared with 22 for Intel. But it would be a mistake to count Intel out. A.G. Edwards recently began coverage of the stock with a prediction it would hit 50 in the next year. The brokerage firm figures Intel will increase gross margins from 58% in September to 65% by the end of '05. And, with consumers and businesses finally replacing old PCs, Intel should be able to increase revenue at close to 20% a year for the next two years, Edwards says. With numbers like that, bearishness just doesn't compute. -- Leslie P. Norton