NY TIMES OP/ED "Swing Voters" by The Hotline's Chuck Todd
nytimes.com
December 29, 2003
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
In Search of the Swing Voter
By CHUCK TODD
WASHINGTON — With Election Day less than a year away, the search is on for swing voters. First there were Reagan Democrats, then Soccer Moms; in 2002, a political consultant actually got a reporter to buy into a new demographic called Waitress Moms. Already in the 2004 campaign there have been sightings of Nascar Dads, Office-Park Dads and Security Moms (Soccer Moms who are worried about terrorism).
It is a time-honored tradition in campaigns, this quest for the swing voter. But ask yourself: do you know anyone who really vacillates between the two political parties with each election? It's not common. The vast majority of people always vote the same party — when they vote.
That three-word phrase — "when they vote" — is the key to understanding swing voters. The most accurate definition of a swing voter is a person who swings between voting and not voting. No matter how defined, however, swing voters remain the most coveted, and most influential, demographic in American politics. And this year's swing voter could very well be . . . Young People. A more catchy name will have to await the legions of political consultants and media pundits.
Of course, the idea of appealing to the young voter is older than most young voters themselves. But the involvement of a new group, the New Voters Project, combined with a surge in civic involvement after 9/11, may make 2004 the year young voters finally get their swing.
The importance of swing voters is beyond argument, as the 2002 Senate election in North Carolina shows. In that race Elizabeth Dole, the Republican nominee, won by 200,000 votes over Erskine Bowles, the Democratic candidate. Mr. Bowles lost despite winning 20,000 more votes than the Democratic nominee in the 1998 Senate election, John Edwards. Yet Mr. Edwards won that race and, as some voters (at least in Iowa and New Hampshire) are aware, is now running for president.
Mr. Bowles lost even though he followed perhaps the most basic rule of politics — maximizing the turnout of your base. He lost because Mrs. Dole did an even better job of finding Republican swing voters. Her vote total was more than 300,000 higher than that of her party's nominee for the Senate four years earlier, Lauch Faircloth.
These new Republican voters were not "Dole Democrats," crossing party lines for a particular candidate. They were sometimes-voting Republicans: people who didn't vote in 1998 but voted for President Bush in 2000. The Dole campaign made a concentrated effort to reach these voters in 2002.
The demographic group that may fit this swing voter profile better than any Nascar fan or soccer parent is people under the age of 25. Many of these people didn't vote in 2000 because they weren't old enough or, worse, were disenchanted with the national political discourse.
Four years later, the average 24-year-old has a far more serious set of concerns. Her seminal political memory is no longer Monica Lewinsky, it is 9/11. Like Pearl Harbor for an earlier generation, 9/11 is the kind of memory that re-emphasizes the need for civic duty — and it's likely that young folks are going to hear this call.
Political strategists for both parties have long paid lip service to the importance of young voters, even as they roll their eyes at the prospects of actually mobilizing them. There will be people who just don't believe the investment in young voters is worth it. They will say it's just too hard to track down young voters, who change jobs and addresses more frequently. Better to stick with older, more established voters, millions of whom both parties have already identified.
But before writing off this idea, they should think about that seminal political memory seared into the minds of the 18-to-24 set. Then they should juxtapose that with the current situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. The vast majority of the soldiers on the front lines of the war on terror and the war in Iraq are under 25 years old.
The war is going to hit very close to home to this voting bloc. Their passion on this issue may actually be deeper than that of other voters. From antiwar college campuses to patriotic rural America, young people are engaged or involved in the war on terrorism.
The only question, really, is how to find these new swing voters. Howard Dean's presidential campaign regularly trumpets its ability to get young people involved. The Republican National Committee also says it's seeing a surge in participation in the College Republicans.
But what's the evidence? Young voters almost never show up in polls because researchers focus on likely voters — and in the mind of a political strategist, someone between the ages of 18 and 24 is hardly considered a likely voter. (In addition, many people under 30 have only a cellphone, keeping themselves off phone lists pollsters use.)
The Dean campaign may be a leading indicator of young-voter power. If Dr. Dean's vote totals in the early primary and caucus states are 5 to 10 percentage points higher than predicted in polls, then it may be a sign that this year is different. The involvement of the New Voters Project, which is organizing voter-registration drives in six swing states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin) could also make a difference.
Whether these efforts succeed remains to be seen. But if early returns show that young people are voting in larger numbers, then the game will be afoot. For strategists of both parties, the contest for the new swing voter will begin.
Chuck Todd is editor in chief of The Hotline, a newsletter about politics. |
