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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Copperfield who wrote (122339)	12/28/2003 10:15:25 AM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

That is very interesting, but disputed by other sources. Of course, that merely makes it a question of "whom do you trust?" I could not find the issue of Time that was relevant, but here is a start of material on the other side, as it were: 04 Dec 2003 21:19:23 GMT Iraq's labor minister optimistic over new jobs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By Sue Pleming ARLINGTON, Va., Dec 4 (Reuters) - Iraq's labor minister said on Thursday he was confident Iraq's menacingly high jobless rate would be slashed in the next few years and urged U.S. and other firms working there to use more local workers. Speaking on the sidelines of an Iraqi reconstruction conference, Labor and Social Affairs Minister Sami Azara al-Majoun put Iraq's unemployment rate at about 40 percent, or 8.5 million. This figure was much lower than other estimates of at least 50 percent which Majoun said were "grossly exaggerated." "I cannot find work overnight for millions of people or in two or three months. It will take time," he told Reuters of efforts to reduce Iraq's unemployment rate, which has been blamed for fanning violence against U.S. occupation. "But I hope in the next four years to have cut unemployment right back," he said through a translator. Hundreds of representatives from companies interested in doing business in Iraq and getting lucrative rebuilding contracts attended the two-day conference outside Washington and Majoun said he had urged them to make more use of Iraq's labor force. "God willing, when the reconstruction really starts we should be able to reduce unemployment," he said. The United States hopes an additional $18.7 billion it has allocated to rebuilding Iraq as well as other donor funds will bolster Iraq's economy and take disgruntled Iraqi jobless off the streets. A joint United Nations/World Bank report issued in October estimated that in a country of 26 million people, 50 percent of Iraq's work force were unemployed or underemployed. Adding to that fiery mix are a young population and more than 400,000 Iraqi soldiers who lost their jobs when the U.S. administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, abolished the army soon after President Saddam Hussein's ouster in April. Majoun said he did not think unemployment rates were worse now than during Saddam's rule. "The numbers have not changed. Why did the international community not asked about these numbers during Saddam's reign? We come now, liberate the country and people are shouting about unemployment," he said. He said his government was optimistic of a big turnaround when the oil fields were running at capacity and reconstruction was at full steam. alertnet.org

To: Copperfield who wrote (122339)	12/28/2003 10:24:42 AM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

Saturday, December 06, 2003 Iraqi oil production/export recovering rapidly Basra's oil export terminal Al Jazeera says the next issue of the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) (to be released Monday - online is subscription only, past the headlines and summaries) will show the Iraqi oil infrastructure is recovering more rapidly than expected. Estimates are 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of production and 1.5m bpd exported in November. The port at Basra can handle 1.9m bpd. And the flow of oil through the northern pipeline from Kirkuk to the export terminal in Ceyhan is apparently being quietly re-established. It's possible Iraqi oil production and exports will be back at prewar levels by the end of the first quarter. This is more optimistic than reports I've read previously. Iraq needs its oil industry to be self-sufficient and to begin to pay down debts roughly estimated to be as high as 130 Billion $US. [Jim Baker has been called in to help minimize the debt burden.] The US is spending far more in Iraq than it can recover in the foreseeable future from potential lower oil prices (if it even ever sees such), before even mentioning the priceless loss of life and limb. If the insurgents disrupt this effort (and there have been reports of pipeline damage), the Iraqi people should be able to see this is against their best interests. But, we've seen how our good intentions can be misconstrued. Here's what Omar (an Iraqi) said about the oil grab theory on 12/1 at Iraq the Model. Here's an August Al Jazeera spin on the subject. See an earlier post for the effect of years of mismanagement on the future yield of Iraq's oil reserves. According to links in that post, the US has (thus far) concentrated on above-ground infrastructure, and has not yet helped in improving the underground management techniques (in part due to the criticism that this is all a big "oil grab"). Saturday, December 06, 2003 at 07:34 AM in Middle East \| Permalink airbornecombatengineer.typepad.com

To: Copperfield who wrote (122339)	12/28/2003 10:28:29 AM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

Mixed Signals Iraq's Electricity Situation Improves — in Parts Nov. 2— After initial power problems, ABCNEWS and Time news teams found improvements in northern and southern Iraq, but continued trouble in Baghdad and central Iraq. Northern Iraq: Better Central Iraq: Worse Southern Iraq: Better Our surveys on electricity matched what the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) is reporting: improvements in most of the country, except central Iraq. More areas of the country have electricity, and overall production has exceeded prewar levels. In Baghdad, electricity remains below prewar levels and officials warn that things could get worse before they get better. Iraqis also cautioned us against reading current levels as a "success" — given that we began our surveys after the brutal summer heat, when electricity needs were considerably greater. ABCNEWS' Bob Woodruff and Vinnie Malhotra were stunned to encounter not a single power outage during their travels in southern Iraq. In the holy Shiite city of Karbala, they were also reminded of the extent to which Saddam Hussein had used electricity as a political lever. "Technically it [electricity] is better than before the war, and politically it is 1 million times better," a Karbala resident told them. "Because before, when the light went out you knew it was for political reasons — to punish us for being Shia." Megawatts Produced Per Day Prewar: 3,300-4,400 mw April 2003: 300 mw Current: 4,518 mw Needed: 6,000 mw (Source: CPA) Hours of Electricity Per Day in Baghdad: Current: <12 Prewar: 18-24 (Source: CPA) Editor's Note: This is not a full-fledged, comprehensive poll. But as ABCNEWS and Time review the reporting, research, and surveys completed on the ground, this may be one of the most comprehensive reporting efforts undertaken since the beginning of the Iraq war. abcnews.go.com

To: Copperfield who wrote (122339)	12/28/2003 11:02:23 AM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 281500

Here is something that shows how interesting spin can be. I will highlight the critical section: Poll: Iraqis Distrusting Coalition Troops Tuesday December 2, 2003 8:16 AM By MICHAEL McDONOUGH Associated Press Writer LONDON (AP) - Nearly four out of five Iraqis have little or no confidence in occupying U.S. and British forces, but more than 40 percent said the fall of Saddam Hussein was the best thing that happened to them in the past year, according to a poll published Monday. Initial findings from the study, conducted across Iraq between mid-October and mid-November, also showed that almost three-quarters of respondents lack confidence in the American-led Coalition Provisional Authority. But only around a fifth of Iraqis questioned said they trust political parties, according to Oxford Research International, the British-based consultancy that led the survey of 3,244 people aged 15 and over. It described the poll as ``the first truly representative national study in the recent history'' of Iraq. The margin of error was not immediately available and researchers warned that some findings could change following secondary statistical analysis, to be conducted in the coming weeks. The survey results were published a day after the end of the bloodiest month yet for the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. At least 104 coalition troops died in Iraq in November, including 79 Americans. Asked how much confidence they had in U.S. and British forces in Iraq, 56.6 percent of respondents said they had none at all and 22.2 percent said they didn't have very much confidence, while only 7.6 percent had ``a great deal.'' Regarding the Coalition Provisional Authority, led by U.S. administrator L. Paul Bremer, 43.5 percent of those questioned expressed no confidence, and 29.9 percent said they had not very much confidence. Some of the survey's findings appeared contradictory. When people were asked to name the best thing that had happened to them in the last 12 months, by far the most common response - with 42.3 percent of answers - was the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. The second most common answer, with 15.7 percent, was improvements in education. But when asked to name the worst thing that had happened to them in the last 12 months, 35.1 percent cited the war, bombings and defeat. The second most frequent answer, with 13.6 percent of responses, was the death of a loved one. [The highlighted paragraph reads that a majority of Iraqis have some or a lot of confidence in Paul Bremer and the CPA. However, it is phrased to emphasize that there is that the majority does not have a robust degree of confidence.] guardian.co.uk