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Politics : World Affairs Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (3061)	12/29/2003 2:55:35 PM
From: Elmer Flugum	Respond to of 3959

Many, and the numbers are growing.... I could go on, but there are things that are left unsaid in public. len

To: Brumar89 who wrote (3061)	1/2/2004 10:05:56 PM
From: ChinuSFO	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3959

Violence to continue if US fails to intervene London \| By Mustapha Karkouti, Special to Gulf News \| 02/01/2004 Many European diplomats and Middle East experts agree 2004 will bring more gloom and bloodshed unless the US administration injects drastic and direct measures into the peace process. The majority of these diplomats and experts polled by Gulf News during the last few days of the year could only hope for what they called "a contained level of violence" in the region, particularly in Palestine/Israel. "Let's not forget, 2004 is election year in the US," an official said, "and the Bush administration will fight off any development which might influence the campaign." The year 2003 was meant to be change the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for good. There was a new peace plan - the roadmap - and there was a talk of a new Middle East before the invasion of Iraq. But as the year ended, the roadmap had miserably failed. In an attempt to make the roadmap work and under pressure of the Bush Administration, peacemakers invented a new post, that of Palestinian prime minister. The job was created to try to put in place an alternative Palestinian leader to bypass Yasser Arafat who was dismissed as "an obstacle to peace" by President Bush, and "irrelevant" by Israeli's prime minister, Ariel Sharon. The failure of Mahmoud Abbas proved one point: The roadmap navigators' gamble had failed, and the year's events reminded everybody that all roads still lead to the isolated "old man" Yasser Arafat. Many European officials were doubly disappointed as a result of the Iraqi campaign. Having "remade" Iraq, officials were led to believe the Bush administration would be in a strong position to remake the Israeli-Palestinian conflict via the roadmap. Bush-Abbas summit In June, George W. Bush held a roadmap summit with Abbas and Jordanian King Abdullah. He promised to "ride hard" on both sides to ensure progress. He appointed a roadmap monitor, John Wolf, and his national security advisor, Condoleezza Rice went to Occupied Jerusalem and came away with what she thought was an Israeli concession and a Palestinian ceasefire. Phase one of the roadmap originally intended to take place by May 2003. It stipulated an end to violence against Israelis and Palestinians, Palestinian political reform, Israeli withdrawal and freeze on colony expansion and Palestinian elections. The next phase aimed at creating an independent Palestinian state during June-December 2003, international conference and international monitoring of compliance with roadmap, while the third phase (2004-05) was supposed to see the second international conference, permanent status agreement and end of conflict, agreement on final borders, Occupied Jerusalem, refugees and colonies, and Arab states to agree to peace deals with Israel. Plans went wrong But then it all went wrong. The Bush administration decided subsequently, to lower its profile. The roadmap monitor John Wolf quietly slipped away. With him went any hope that the US would force roadmap progress. While there is no practical set-in-motion alternative to roadmap, notwithstanding the Geneva Accord and the so-called Ayalon-Nusiebah's initiative, the most serious available alternative in 2004 is the Sharon's enforced unilateral plan. Sharon has warned that he will impose what he calls his "Disengagement Plan" should the Palestinians fail to meet his demands for a new leadership and the dismantling of armed Palestinian factions. He has decided to give the Palestinians a few months to comply. If the Palestinians do not meet his terms and his timetable, the Israeli premier has warned that he will take unilateral steps to draw up his own borders and to impose a settlement in Israel's favour. This is a recipe for disaster which would very likely lead to increased violence, an essential requirement for Sharon to get his way. Here where the US intervention "is most needed", a British diplomat said. "While other countries and mediators can make some progress," he added, "the US is the only country with sufficient leverage to get things moving. Simply, the Israelis do not trust the roadmap's other backers," the European Union, Russia and the UN. gulf-news.com