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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t4texas who wrote (28553)	12/29/2003 6:27:34 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206281

t4texas, I've been getting Tobin Smith's Changewave newsletter ever since he put out that special report on the natty crisis in June. His best pick so far has been buying CHK at $8.50, followed by TMR at $4. He bought MHR at $8.25. Interestingly for TMR fans, he has yet to raise his initial "buy under" price for TMR of $4.50, implying that he views it as a "Hold" right now. True to his newsletter's name, Tobin has proven to be very successful at identifying significant macro changes that are going on (usually of a scientific or technical nature but sometimes other). Since he is not an oil & gas guy I don't look at him to necessarily pick the best O&G stocks. I believe his opinions on the natty markets have some merit, albeit a bit on the wild side. Not to be outdone by Marshall Adkins of RJ, he is calling for natty prices to average $6.50 for '04. He puts a lot of weight on his belief that we have entered another phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillator, which says the rest of the winter will be colder than normal. I am planning to use this guy as a surrogate for what I like to call the "huddled masses". The huddled masses are usually late to get into a secular change to an industry and usually stay in too late once they arrive. He arrived on the natty scene in June (after many of the easy initial gains in E&P stocks from the winter '02/'03 explosion in natty prices were made) and is about to put out another update of his natty crisis report. For now I'm just gonna keep riding on the wave as he continues to pump it.