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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (272134)12/29/2003 9:33:46 AM
From: MythMan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
RealCommentary from TheStreet.com
Adding Up the Next Thousand Dow Points
Monday December 29, 9:00 am ET

By James J. Cramer,

If the Federal Reserve is telling the truth, if it sits on the sidelines or raises rates moderately, I think we will have, conservatively, a 1,000-point increase in the Dow. It might happen before year-end; in fact, I think the high point of 2004 probably will come in October, when it becomes obvious that Bush is going to win in a landslide. But I think we'll get those points without a problem.

I don't get that idea by sticking my finger in the air. I get there by looking at the market from the bottom up, looking at the individual stocks. Like the last time I did this, when the market was appreciably lower, I was able to predict that Dow 10,000 was in the cards by year-end. I feel similarly that 11,300 is in the cards by October of next year and that we actually could rally even higher if the Fed takes rates up only 150 basis points in 2004. I say "only" because I don't trust the Fed.