Phil > have you had another look at gold's technicals recently, and what do you see reading those entrails if I may ask
I look every day and they are still telling the same story -- up, although possibly slowing down. Likewise, USD --- down.
stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd50,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]
stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd50,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]
As you know, the gold, currency and stock markets are all being driven by the weak USD. This broad movement must also indicate inflation in the US, although Treasuries are still going sideways.
stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd150,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]
And, that the gold market is, in fact, being driven by inflation is confirmed by the POG/CRB ratio, which is moving in a fairly constant range.
stockcharts.com[w,a]dalaynay[dj][pd200,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]
And, likewise, that it is also being driven by the weak USD which is confirmed by the POG/Euro ratio which is also moving in a fairly constant range.
stockcharts.com[w,a]dalaynay[dj][pd200,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]
Meanwhile, gold shares (in the US) seem to be coming out of a shakeout although time will tell if it is, in fact, the commencement of something more serious.
stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd50,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]
stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd50,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]
All in all, a weak and falling currency plus rising inflation does not bode well for the US. In fact, one feeds off the other to create a vicious cycle. It's also clear that the Fed is reluctant, and for obvious reasons, to raise interest rates but it will eventually have to.
As you know, I did not anticipate this and felt (or possibly hoped) that they would be able to do some magic to prevent it. I was wrong. |
