Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (4140)	12/29/2003 10:12:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hi mish, I am with the camp that says China will not be re-valuing RMB upward in any material fashion any time soon, since the current vein of exploitable goodies is not mined out yet ;0) Japan will continue to be bled out, via the US, with the money pooling in China, driving up resource pricing everywhere due to Chinese love for all things that can be fondled, creating the mother of all resource bubbles, and then, energy crisis or some other less anticipated event triggering global monetary collapse. Either that or the Nasdaq goes to 10,000, DJIA to 36,000, and average California house to USD 1 mm :0) With the way events are moving, there does not seem to be a lot of room in between the two extreme possibilities. Chugs, Jay

To: mishedlo who wrote (4140)	12/29/2003 10:59:41 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

I'm not sure the yuan "goes to the moon" (and if so it wouldn't be allowed), but think it (and the Yen) will have a good pop (maybe 15-20%?) if left unfettered. <Most imported manufactured goods have actually dropped in price.> Chinese goods have been pegged up to now to the dollar. Do you think they'd stay down if the currency was adjusted 15-20%? Based on what? I do think that consumption in the US will slow after an Asian revaluation. That's the idea, and a good thing, works toward shrinking the trade deficit some. <I disagree that Japans goal is to stay competitive with China. The goal is to keep the US buying its goods.> My argument is more linear. If the Japanese can stay competitive with the Chinese via a quid pro quo revaluation, then they might be able to retain a good portion of the US and other markets. <Not sure what you mean by "backup in US interest rates", but if you mean huge hikes in the FF rate, you are quite simply barking up the wrong tree again.. Once again, I no longer consider the Fed the primary rate setter in the US. That would be Asian central banks, and secondarily foreigners.