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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5678)	12/30/2003 10:36:39 AM
From: tonka552000	Respond to of 108556

Jim, Happy Holidays...it's interesting (and often times necessary) to focus on time-frames greater than the hourly/daily swings...although I admit to focusing short term for potential plays....but, I think it's good to view the longer term and see the macro issues facing all of us... Keep up the good work...and same to you Iso, Jims, Tippet,Valutrader, Jay, and all the rest...a great thread Tonka

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5678)	12/30/2003 11:32:57 AM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108556

re UK gov pension black hole Whitehall faces huge pensions black hole By Tessa Thorniley (Filed: 30/12/2003) The Government is facing a £470billion public sector pensions liability, dwarfing the pensions "black hole" in the private sector and potentially costing taxpayers £21billion a year, according to a former Bank of England economist. Neil Record, now an investment manager, said the "massive liability" should apppear on the public balance sheet as the Government has committed the money to its employees, largely through final salary pension schemes. Mounting pension liabilities in the private sector have attracted severe criticism, not least from MPs, in recent years. The gap between the value of assets set aside to meet employees' pensions and the cost of these pensions in today's money now stands at about £100billion. Employers in the UK have tucked aside about £800billion to meet pension costs, figures from the Office for National Statistics show, and Mr Record said: "The Government should come clean and recognise the scale and importance of its own problem". According to the Government Actuary's Department, underfunding in the NHS, civil service and other public service pension schemes, reached £380 billion in the year to March 2002, calculated at "present value" - the value of the funds in today's money. This discounts future returns and interest rates. However, Mr Record claims the true figure is almost £100billion higher if it is not distorted by "arbitrary" actuarial assumptions. He said: "High discount rates reduce the present value, so the rate the Government uses is critical. It seems the Government is using a real - after inflation - discount rate of 3.5pc to value its pension liabilities, based on the expected yield of long-term gilts. But the market values long-term gilts (on index linked gilts) at around 2pc, or even lower for short-term rates." Opposition MPs calling for the Government to value its pension liability at the 2pc "market rate", were told a revaluation is too costly. But, Mr Record said, based on a rough calculation, including some reasonable assumptions about the age mix in public service employed, the £380billion, discounted at 3.5pc becomes £470billion, if discounted at the lower rate. "The liability is enormous. It is larger than the National Debt of £435billion at the end of past year and almost five times as big as the black hole in the private sector," he said. Furthermore, the debt is set to rise, as employers live longer and public sector employment rises. One in four workers are already employed by the public sector. Mr Record called for an end to the excessive generosity of these schemes, "which create an elite class of pensioner who is immune to the economic climate, at the expense of the working population".

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5678)	12/30/2003 12:01:10 PM
From: Mac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108556

The dollar will drop until the trade deficit (operating loss) disappears or shows an improving situation. A 50 cent dollar is not unrealistic in this environment. I'll hold my gold tight for now.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5678)	12/30/2003 12:30:36 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108556

JW, amazing how clowns still maintain US$ decline is good for US It's America, the Land of Opportunity, El Dorado and snake oil salesmen. Mostly the latter when it comes to lately or the markets. So it is the market perception that is trading reality, rather than any reality that is perceived by the market. A nifty little saying I made up, posted on my monitors, and on which I do ponder, before I make any trade. I've gotten into MUCH more trouble correctly seeing the reality and miscalculating the perceptions of the market, i.e., the sentiment, than the other way around. Best of luck, Roebear

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5678)	12/30/2003 12:44:04 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 108556

amazing how clowns still maintain US$ decline is good for US corporations and our economy There seems to be a subtle propaganda war brewing here on the merits/negatives of a strong loonie.. Another in the plus camp is the NHL.. Toronto Maple Leafs are enjoying windfall profits this year from the strong loonie , the payroll is up in USD terms which players are paid in (more hiring flexibility) but the payroll is down in real dollars (loonies LOL), marginal Canadian teams like the Edmonton Oilers are actually turning a profit... Chalk that up with the recent 'It's good for our standard of living' talk ... Gotta be good for our other sports teams too...