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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4161)12/30/2003 1:30:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
my view also, CB's have forestalled effects so far
but they cannot stop the arrival of ill effects

for two years now, the new Fed liquidity push money has offset burned capital
but this year, something new has happened, which the inept Fed has misinterpreted
we have commodity and energy price rises, and now Asian currency rises

this fosters increased costs without the benefit of increased pricing power
inflation with pressures on profits
this adds up to imminent stagflation
when the monumental monetary expansion effects become muted, and inefficiency is felt more widely, we will see stagnating conditions economically

the inept Greenspasm Fed has interpreted all this as the advent of reflation and successful Fed policy
the rest of the world's CB's disagree, and have begun to increase ST rates
but nooooo
Greeny will keep the floodgates open for another few months minimum, and full year maximum

HE WILL STAY EASY UNTIL THE VIGILANTES SHOW UP
OR UNTIL THE UNDESIRABLE EFFECTS WORSEN MUCH MORE
like copper at 103, silver at 600, gold at 450
commodities are responding sharply
energy is next this winter

I still expect the oil producers to stick it right up GreenMan's flatullent backside
they will quietly impose a euro-denomination based price interval system, which appears in USDollar terms, but is totally determined by the euro exchange rate
/ jim



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4161)12/30/2003 2:02:25 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
currency "cabal" will have to break down before you see any significant selling of treasuries. You got a catalyst for that ...

I'm a bit bipolar here -- shorting housing and going long treasuries today ... at least maybe I'll be half right in 2-3 months?? <VBG>