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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12864)	12/30/2003 7:10:39 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95531

Hi Don, thanks for the cheering words. I did notice that when nasdaq hit its 2-year high, it was not riding the electronics/tech horse. It must be bio stocks - the real high tech of the 21st century. Oh, well. I think most of us are glad we had a good year in '03. Especially if we weren't maimed by a roadside bomb, or buried in an earthquake or mud-slide, or burned to death in our own home. So I thank God, regardless of where WDC is on the chart. I hope you - and all of us here - have a safe and prosperous New Year. Sarmad

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12864)	12/30/2003 7:45:36 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95531

Don, I want to thank you among others for talking me out of going long on either CMOS or MTSN a while back. The stocks did indeed get ahead of themselves and now reside at the bottom of your list. As you know I for one will not be surprised by more selling in early January. We could see a couple more decent trading days this week to the upside but in order for the NASDAQ to continue to advance chip stocks must lead the advance. They have not been doing that for a while. Perhaps that will change but if it does I think it will not happen until the second or third week of January. That means at least the first full trading week of January could be ugly. Time will tell. As always JMHO, RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12864)	12/30/2003 8:43:03 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95531

HI Don, Which of our stocks will lead the earning parade in january. Those results and particularly the guidance will either break them out of the box they are in or cause a consolidation in the naz. 50/50 imo. I hope the ceos will have the guts to speak their mind re: business going forward. It would also be nice to see some m&a activity going forward at premium prices. There still has been little of that in tech. Perhaps cisco can get this going with a well-received aquisition. mike

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12864)	12/30/2003 8:59:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95531

Sarmad/RtS, It was good hearing from you, now and throughout this past year. The year was certainly full of surprises as far as I was concerned. At the beginning of the year I expected an improvement in the indices, but not as much as actually occurred. I never cease to be amazed at what I consider to be illogical movements in the market, but then, that's the way it has to be doesn't it - if it weren't that way, it probably couldn't exist if we all thought the same way. Just a comment about the Group, and the SOX, and I think to most any index that gets established. People talk about "sector rotation" periodically, but I see very little comment about "rotation" of valuation within each index itself. When I started tracking the group of individual stocks that make up the Group several years ago, I never expected the constant rotation that goes on within the Group. I have posted many of these comparisons over the years, and the spread from the top positive performing stock in the Group to the worst performing stock in the Group is usually extremely large - the recent example of MTSN being up 24 percent in the last 7 weeks while CMOS is down 22 percent in the same period is the "norm" and not the "exception". It made me realize how important it is to be a good "stock picker" if a person really wants to make money in the market in terms of "swing trading" or longer term "buy and hold" type trading. Not only do you have to pick the right stock, but it must be bought at the right time and sold at the right time - extremely difficult to do as we are all well aware. Having said that, this year is drawing to a close so let me wish you and all the others that participate in and/or read this thread, a very Happy and Prosperous New Year, both personally and financially. Best Wishes, Don