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To: RinConRon who wrote (22250)12/31/2003 3:36:46 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793689
 
Mexico at an Impasse
M. Delal Baer
From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2004

Summary: Three years into Mexico's democratic revolution, few of its hopes have been realized: the political system is gridlocked, the economy is stagnant, and relations with the United States are deteriorating. A crisis is not imminent, but progress must come soon if Mexico's grand experiment with political and economic liberty is to continue.

THE EXPECTATIONS REVOLUTIONS

The July 2000 defeat of Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) after more than 70 years of rule sparked a revolution in expectations. There were celebrations in the streets, glowing editorials in foreign newspapers, and expressions of undiluted optimism in investment and policy circles. Newly elected president Vicente Fox projected a triumphant image of strength and confidence that inflated hopes at home and abroad: private investment would flood in, the rule of law would prevail, the sins of the past would be punished, and the U.S.-Mexico relationship would flower. More profoundly, Mexico would elude its existential condition as an underdeveloped nation.

Three years into Mexico's democratic transition, few of these dreams have been realized. Mexican politics are more democratic but less governable and are suffering from gridlock between the executive and legislative branches. The economy is stable, but growth and competitiveness are lagging as the next generation of reforms -- tax, energy, and labor -- falls prey to partisan bickering in Mexico's Congress. And the friendship between Fox and President George W. Bush has cooled over differences about immigration and policy toward Iraq. Mexico shows no signs of an imminent crisis, but its triple political, economic, and diplomatic impasse is taking a toll. The price of unreasonably high expectations has been premature disillusionment. A breakthrough in at least one area must come fairly soon -- lest Mexico's grand experiment with economic and political liberty fail to fulfill its potential.

UNGOVERNABLE DEMOCRACY

The principal concern of Mexico's political elite today is how to build governing majorities and achieve consensus. After three years of stalemate in Congress, there is debate over whether Mexico's political paralysis is the result of a constitutional structure that makes it inherently ungovernable or of weak leadership on the part of President Fox. The answer to this question is not insignificant. If the logjam is due to weak leadership, the presidential elections of 2006 might resolve the problem. If the logjam, however, is structural in nature, it will be much more difficult to overcome.

Fox's leadership style is unconventional and ideologically heterogeneous. Some commentators find him refreshing and authentic, whereas others complain that he has not established clear priorities or consistent legislative strategies. But whatever Fox's shortcomings, it is clear that any leader, no matter how gifted, would have struggled with the challenge of assuming the presidency at Mexico's singular moment of regime change. Fox won only 42.5 percent of the vote in the 2000 elections, and his National Action Party (PAN) controls just 30 percent of seats in the lower house of Congress (the Chamber of Deputies) and 38 percent in the Senate. In most instances of regime change, the old regime is defeated and dismantled definitively. In Mexico, the PRI was defeated but far from dismantled: it remains ensconced in Congress as a legitimate opposition party.

Many Mexicans believe that a democratic transition must include a punitive settling of accounts with the PRI. As a result, Fox has found himself on the horns of a dilemma: he needs a juicy . . . (Rest Not Available)

Copyright 2003 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All Rights Reserved.



To: RinConRon who wrote (22250)12/31/2003 3:58:01 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793689
 
The Wall Street Journal agrees with us. In detail.

Deal With the Devil
Gadhafi is still a tyrant, not a statesman.

BY CLAUDIA ROSETT
Ms. Rosett is a fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the Hudson Institute. Her column appears here and in The Wall Street Journal Europe on alternate Wednesdays.

With Moammar Gadhafi's conversion--if that's what it is--there's greater hope that other tyrants may scrap their programs for weapons of mass murder and offer snap, unconditional tours of such amenities as their poison factories and uranium centrifuge facilities. That's worth celebrating.
But there's also good reason for the U.S., Britain and our other democratic allies to calibrate far more prudently the enthusiasm of their response when a tyrant gives up weapons programs he shouldn't have had in the first place. In hailing Gadhafi's move, Prime Minister Tony Blair praised him as "courageous." President Bush announced that "Libya has begun the process of rejoining the community of nations." And the growing prospect of the U.S. lifting sanctions and U.S. oil companies returning to revive Libya's decrepit petroleum infrastructure has somehow acquired the sheen of reform, as if it were part of the process of bringing Libya back to civilization.

Folks, we've overshot. Should this precedent now mean that if North Korea's Kim Jong Il gives up his bombs and missiles, he will be hailed as a statesman, exonerated of the deaths of millions in his own country, and promised U.S. backing for a long fat life in power? Does it mean the Iranian ayatollahs only have to stop brewing fissile material to be reborn as our pals of the Middle East? Should we now understand that if Slobodan Milosevic had only had the wit to keep power while pursuing germ, gas and nuclear weapons which he then agreed to renounce, he would now be lauded by Washington and London, instead of on trial in The Hague?

First, it was neither courage nor some sort of Augustinian epiphany that prompted Gadhafi's decision. It was fear. Over the past two years, U.S.-led coalitions in Afghanistan and Iraq have demonstrated a vital truth of modern warfare: The U.S. has the power to remove by force any individual regime it chooses to focus on. No, we cannot by any stretch remove all enemy regimes, but the message, which evidently reached Gadhafi, is that any tyrant who prefers to avoid a Saddam-style medical exam would be wise to keep his head down, his weapons conventional and his name off the top of the U.S. enemies charts.

This is a terrific turn of events, providing useful leverage for the U.S. In negotiating with despots, there is little virtue to offering carrots, which involve extending our own measure of trust. Among tyrants, that tends to inspire not reform and respect, but contempt and betrayal (Kim Jong Il, take a bow). Far more effective with this crowd is the stick (or, in Saddam's case, the tongue depressor).

And certainly in U.S. efforts to channel this fear toward the desirable end of despots disarming, there is logic to letting tyrants know that once they give up their weapons of mass murder, they can rest assured that they have dropped a few notches on the U.S. military's to-do list.

But tyrants as a rule face another kind of threat, not from the U.S. and its allies, but from their own subjects. They live in terror of the day their victims right there at home--those who know them best, those whose lives they have most violated--might seize any chance to rally in the streets, to plot a coup, to finally unseat the despot and his regime. And for the U.S. or any other democratic nation to reward tyrants by praising them, guaranteeing their safety or even enhancing it against this kind of internal threat is folly. It is a betrayal of American principles, of the human beings who live under tyrannical rule, and--as Iraq under Saddam so richly illustrated--it only postpones the day the trouble must be dealt with.
This is the path we have been treading for some time with North Korea, from the mid-1990s until last year supplying aid to the Pyongyang regime, and still providing a sort of fearful deference, an overzealous interest in striking deals with a government built on deceit. In Washington's eagerness to resume talks these next few weeks with North Korea's Kim, there is an unseemly indifference not only to the basic rights and interests of North Korea's more than 22 million people, but also to a long record in which the "stability" of North Korea's government has been a constantly simmering danger to the civilized world.

These are devil's deals we need not make.

And while weapons of mass murder deserve plenty of attention, it is unwise to focus on them to the exclusion of other depredations, and at the cost of excusing tyrants from behavior that tends to spawn and spread awful ruin in other ways. The war on terror is not simply a contest of arsenals but a war of ideas about how mankind should be governed. Gadhafi, with his brutal habits and deep appetite for power has been meddling militarily and buying influence for years in Africa--which, even in absence of WMDs, in no way works toward any cause of prosperity or peace. Whether that will now end remains to be seen. There is no reason to credit in advance a ruler who has never dealt even with his own people in good faith.

Or take, for instance, the Saudi royals, who even without the advantage of WMDs have fostered a murderous global network of Wahhabi teachings that continue to threaten the democratic world. Sept. 11, as many have noted, did not require advanced weapons of mass murder. In fact, in the long catalog of modern wars, political atrocities and terrorist acts, almost every item to date has depended upon purely conventional equipment, wielded by tyrants and their spawn.

In Libya's case, Gadhafi is bartering not on behalf of his country's 5.4 million people, but for his own power--which is in no way in Libya's interest. By what right has he ruled and wrecked his country for 34 years? He continues to run Libya as a prison state, a place of "revolutionary committees" with the power to jail anyone and appropriate anything in the name of his custom-molded regime. If modern oil companies now come trooping in, odds are that they will enhance not the rights of Libya's people, but the riches of Gadhafi--who, as did Saddam, as do the Saudi royals--controls the dole on which the Libyan people, under the wretched restrictions of his police state, must depend. How, after all, does anyone think he's been getting the billions to buy his way back from terrorist pariah to international statesman?

There are role models worthy of the kind of praise just heaped on Gadhafi, though political correctness might in some cases dictate otherwise. In the Philippines, there was Ferdinand Marcos, in South Korea, Chun Doo-Hwan, in Chile, Augusto Pinochet, and in the former U.S.S.R., Mikhail Gorbachev. Without excusing their wickedness while in power, they all did the one thing that can truly begin to redeem a despot. However reluctantly, in deference to the rights and demands of their people, they resigned. Should Gadhafi decide to depart--lock, stock and regime--that may be the time to talk of courage and statesmanship. Until then, it should be quite enough to greet Gadhafi's new strategy for survival with the announcement that we do not have any immediate plans to invade.



To: RinConRon who wrote (22250)12/31/2003 4:52:55 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793689
 
Here is an AP reporter that got out of his Baghdad Hotel and went to Tikrit. Do you think the Network News will pick this up? Naaah.




Iraqi Spiritual Leaders Form Committee

By JASON KEYSER
The Associated Press
Monday, December 29, 2003; 2:28 PM
washingtonpost.com

TIKRIT, Iraq - Influential spiritual leaders from Saddam Hussein's hometown - a bastion of anti-American sentiment - are joining forces to persuade Iraqis to abandon the violent insurgency, one of the leaders said Monday.

The effort marks a new, open willingness to cooperate with U.S. forces - a shift in the thinking of at least some key members of Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority, which lost political dominance with the fall of Saddam and has largely formed the most outspoken and violent opposition to the U.S.-led occupation.

Sheik Sabah Mahmoud, leader of the Sada tribe, said he and 10 other tribal elders have formed a reconciliation committee in Tikrit to speak to other Iraqi leaders about trying to persuade rebels to put down weapons. He said he took that message last week to a group of scholars, religious leaders and other prominent figures meeting in Baghdad.

"It's about time we put our differences aside and looked to the future," Mahmoud said. "I told them, 'The reality is they (American forces) are here on the ground; the past is dead. Give the Americans a chance to see what they are going to give us.'"

The committee was formalized Saturday, he said.

"It's just the beginning," the sheik said during a meeting in the provincial government building with a U.S. Army commander and seven other spiritual leaders.

The committee is one of the fruits of a forum that has been meeting since the summer. Such gatherings offer a glimpse into deepening ties between U.S. commanders and Sunni leaders in a rebel stronghold, even as attacks against coalition forces and those who cooperate with them continue.

Initially, the Sunnis participating in those sessions did not advocate cooperating with American forces. The early meetings were mainly gripe sessions - their only outlet for complaining to U.S. commanders about arrests, raids, night curfews and so forth.

Sunnis ruled Iraq for centuries and dominated the country under Saddam's regime, filling high-ranking positions and reaping economic benefits. But they make up only 20 percent of Iraq's 25 million people, concentrated in Baghdad and villages to the north and west.

With the U.S.-led occupation trying to install democratic government, the Shiite Muslim majority - long oppressed under Saddam - is positioning itself to hold sway in Iraq. Sunnis apparently are realizing they must cooperate with the occupation if they are to have a role in the country's future leadership.

Lt. Col. Steve Russell, who heads the meetings on the American side, welcomed the idea of a formal effort at reconciliation. "It's some good news," he said. The elders responded, "Inshallah," Arabic for "God willing."

Russell also credits tribal leaders with help in recruiting some of the men that American forces are training for the new Iraqi army. The sheiks have also helped disperse crowds of angry protesters, he said.

Russell, of the Army's 4th Infantry Division, said his superiors from Central Command were surprised by reports he brought back of stronger ties with the Sunni sheiks, whom he greets with a few words of Arabic and the traditional custom of a kiss on the cheek.

"They were somewhat surprised that we had had such an established dialogue, because everyone imagines that Tikrit is such an evil place that nothing will ever happen here," he told the sheiks, drawing laughter.

Russell now wants the Sunni leaders to help spread a message of cooperation - and the tribal leaders seek some U.S. concessions in return.

U.S. forces operating in the area of Tikrit and the cities of Kirkuk and Baqouba still detain 248 Iraqis suspected of involvement in attacks on coalition troops. Their release tops a list of demands from the sheiks who now find themselves fighting to save their credibility with their own people.

"Everybody knows we are meeting with the Americans, and they ask what we did and if we talked about prisoners," said Sheik Mahmoud al-Nada, leader of the powerful Nassari tribe from the village of Uja, Saddam's birthplace, just outside Tikrit. "Right now our credibility and honor are on the line."

Russell said he was able to release three detainees last week based on information the elders provided him. He promised to check into other cases. But Russell told them bluntly that some would have to stay in custody.

To prove his case, Russell showed the elders photos of weapons seized from one detainee's house - grenades, assault rifles and ammunition, some of them hidden under a baby's bed.

Also joining the meeting was Brig. Gen. Abdullah al-Jabouri, the Iraqi provincial chief of military affairs, who said active and visible U.S. involvement in improving in the lives of residents will help bring an end to the violent resistance.

"Then people will see that these are not occupation forces. They'll change their view," he said.

© 2003 The Associated Press



To: RinConRon who wrote (22250)12/31/2003 8:24:15 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793689
 
Dean will make GOP the majority party

By DAVID E. JOHNSON

[ The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 12/31/03 ]

Entering 2004, it appears that America is poised to have a defining election that will create a permanent Republican majority.

Democrats appear likely to nominate Howard Dean, rather than someone like Dick Gephardt or Joe Lieberman or Wesley Clark who could present a stronger challenge to President Bush in the general election. In doing so, Democrats are also setting the direction that they want their party to follow -- the extreme left.

Dean has stated again and again that his first objective is to take over the Democratic Party and return it to its roots. In doing so, he will part ways from Democrats such as Bill Clinton and Lieberman, who felt that Democrats need to veer to the center in elections and then govern from the left.

Like another presidential candidate, Barry Goldwater, Dean's first objective is his party's machinery. But unlike Goldwater, Dean is wrong on what the American people want.

From the 1952 election of Dwight D. Eisenhower, Americans have been turning more conservative. Goldwater's ideas were right on target with millions of Americans, but he was shot down by his own misstatements and by liberals in his own party who thought imitating Democrats was the way to victory. The subsequent elections of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush demonstrate the resonance of Goldwater's ideas.

Dean's ideas, on the other hand, are not popular with a majority of the American voters or even a majority of Democrats. But under the arcane nominating rules, Dean will most likely be the Democratic nominee. Sensing this, Al Gore recently rushed to endorse Dean. In doing so, Gore hoped to imitate Nixon. Nixon knew Goldwater would lose in 1964. But Nixon realized that Goldwater's overall philosophy was a winner, so he supported Goldwater wholeheartedly, hoping to inherit his support in 1968 and with that the presidency. Gore believes that the same will happen to him.

But Gore is miscalculating. The country is more conservative and grows more so daily. Gore and Dean are out of touch with a majority of Americans with their support for same-sex marriages. In foreign policy, they resemble Neville Chamberlain more so than Harry Truman. And by backing them, the Democrats are consigning themselves to minority status for the long term.

The 2004 presidential race will be a defining election in American politics, akin to that of Franklin Roosevelt's in 1936 that truly established the Democrats as a majority party.

Key groups that can make up a new Republican majority are forming. Jewish-Americans, long a stalwart of the Democrats, are ready to vote Republican over what they see as not only Dean's but the Democratic Party's abandonment of Israel. Hispanics have also shown, most recently in the California recall, that they will vote Republican.

Finally, Democrats are writing off an entire section of the country -- the South. The Dean nomination will be the final action needed to set off the Republican majority at all levels.

Dean is not a godsend to Republicans; he is the defining moment that Republicans have needed to become the majority party.

--David E. Johnson is the CEO of Strategic Vision LLC, an Atlanta-based public relations and public affairs company.

Find this article at:
ajc.com