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To: unclewest who wrote (22262)12/31/2003 5:52:57 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793677
 
Yale economics professor, Ray Fair, had the 2000 race as close to even. I see that his 2004 model has George W. Bush winning 58.3% of the vote in November

Presidential Vote Equation--October 31, 2003
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2003) were 2.4 percent, 1.8 percent, and 1, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (October 31, 2003) are 2.4 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3. The only significant change concerns the GOODNEWS prediction. The previous quarter (2003:3) turned out to be a good news quarter, and the US model is predicting that the current quarter (2003:4) will also be a good news quarter. Neither of these quarters before was predicted to be a good news quarter. Each good news quarter adds 0.837 percentage points to the incumbent vote share, so two extra good news quarters adds 1.674 percentage points for President Bush. The new economic values give a prediction of 58.3 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 56.7 percent before. This does not, however, change the main story that the equation has been making from the beginning, namely that President Bush is predicted to win by a sizable margin. The margin is just now even larger than before.
fairmodel.econ.yale.edu



To: unclewest who wrote (22262)12/31/2003 6:23:34 AM
From: Bris  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793677
 
soldiers

By Joshua Mitnick
THE WASHINGTON TIMES


HATZEVA, Israel — Israeli army units with the first female infantry soldiers in 50 years are being upgraded to battalion status, a milestone in the fight of female soldiers to be accepted into combat roles in the Jewish state.
For the past three years, female ground troops from Israel's Carcal company have patrolled the quiet desert borders with Jordan and Egypt, freeing up their male counterparts for duty in more dangerous areas. Now the military is appointing its first female company commander.
The integration effort follows years of public pressure to allow women into combat jobs — prohibited since the 1948 War of Independence — and could help boost the status of women in a society that glorifies the military.
Hoping to relieve units stretched thin by the Palestinian uprising, the army created predominantly female companies three years ago to patrol the border for drug smugglers and the rare terrorist infiltrator. Only men served on the more dangerous Lebanese border and in the Palestinian territories.
"Every combat soldier aspires to reach the most dangerous areas. That is why we enlisted," said 20-year-old Sgt. Shiran, whose full name cannot be published under Israeli military censorship rules.
"I've always known that I wanted to do things in the army that I wouldn't do as a civilian. I didn't think I could get the maximum out of it as a clerk."
Toting an M-16 rifle with a sniper scope, Sgt. Shiran still is an exception for women in the Israeli army. Most work far from the battlefield and serve as little as half the time required of men.
Israeli army doctors recommended in October that women be barred from service in combat units on the basis of medical studies showing that they are less able than men to lift heavy objects and carry out sustained, strenuous activities.
The doctors, however, said there was no objection to women serving in light infantry units along peacetime borders, as the Carcal company does, or as radar operators in intelligence units, where they have proved themselves on numerous occasions.
The United States bans women from ground combat units, which include artillery, infantry and armor. They may, however, serve on combat ships and aircraft. And they serve as military police, a job that in Iraq puts them close to counterinsurgency operations.
Carcal company, whose name is Hebrew for wildcat, has a 2-1 ratio for women to men and requires women to sign on for an extra year of service. The four-month boot camp includes training in urban warfare and 20-mile stretcher marches, a regimen based on other infantry brigades.
Male and female Carcal soldiers train together and share patrols in Humvees. The only place where the army insists on separation is in sleeping quarters on the base.
In recent years, the army also has opened artillery, antiaircraft and the air force pilots' course to women. Still, the idea of a mixed combat unit remains a foreign concept in Israel.
Sgt. Pini, one of the male members of Carcal, said he initially joined the company because he was promised a tour of duty on a tranquil border in a unit with "a lot of girls."
"I thought, 'Great, I'll have a girlfriend,' " he said. "It didn't work out that way. When you spend so much time together, it doesn't make a difference. Everyone becomes one of the guys."
The army has told the coed company that it probably will get transferred next year to a more sensitive site, which could mean the tense border with Lebanon or Israel's hotly contested security barrier in the West Bank.
Still, said army spokesman Capt. Jacob Dallal, the integration of women into the combat forces "is an ongoing process. We're past the beginning, but it's a developing thing. ... Until women reach higher ranks on the field, it's going to take time."
Sgt. Shiran said she sees the talk of a transfer as a vote of confidence. Even so, she acknowledged that it will be difficult to convince skeptics of the unit's abilities.
"There will always be doubts. It's human nature. People will always say a boy is strong and a girl is weak," she said.
Maj. Itai, a Carcal company commander and a former undercover commando, said he considers the unit a success but is waiting for a "moment of truth" that will prove that Carcal is up to the job.
"The army still has difficulty with the idea of women in combat. I hear this all the time from people above me," Maj. Itai said. "They don't think it's serious, that if there is an attack the girls will be afraid, or if one is taken prisoner the entire country will be in shock."
In the 1948 war, none of that mattered because Israel needed every available fighter. In the north, women were in units that detonated bridges to block the advance of the Lebanese army. In Jerusalem, they held out during a prolonged siege.
When the war ended, a separate women's corps was established, ending the utilization of nearly all female combat soldiers. Decades passed before Israelis began reconsidering the status of women in the military.


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To: unclewest who wrote (22262)12/31/2003 7:21:41 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793677
 
At bottom, this is a Asian Society here. Don't get in the way of our right to blow off our fingers!

O'ahu getting ready for a big New Year's bang

Light Kona winds and a surge in the sale of firecrackers and permits could add up to a smoky New Year's Eve.


But high humidity and rain showers could blunt the danger of fires breaking out as Hawai'i continues its longstanding practice of lighting fireworks to ring in the new year. The practice is popular among those who believe it chases away evil spirits or others who just get a kick out of loud bangs and flashing colors.

Despite a three-fold increase in the number of firecrackers imported to Hawai'i, retailers yesterday afternoon said most of their shelves were empty.

Gary Tang, assistant manager of the Daiei store on Kaheka, said while novelty items such as sparklers and pop-pops remained well stocked, firecrackers were sold out by Saturday, the second day of sales, even though the store brought in extra cases that day.

A $25 city permit is needed to purchase 5,000 firecrackers, but there is no limit to the number of permits each person can buy. By law, fireworks can be set off between 9 tonight and 1 a.m. tomorrow.

Honolulu Fire Department officials, who keep track of firecracker imports, said 1,000 cases of firecrackers were imported into O'ahu in 2002, compared with 3,000 cases this year.

Stephanie Higa, general merchandise supervisor for Foodland stores, said most of her 29 locations were out of firecrackers by yesterday afternoon. "People are paying $25 for permits and nobody has any (firecrackers)," Higa said
the.honoluluadvertiser.com



To: unclewest who wrote (22262)12/31/2003 5:05:03 PM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 793677
 
HI uw,

I agree with what you are saying. My point to MSI was two
fold; One, that Rumsfeld didn't imply in Congressional
testimony that suicide fighters "are not deterrable", thus
fighting them is bad policy; and also that even though
suicide fighters "are not deterrable", they are a fraction
of the total number of terrorists that we must deal with
in this global war on terror.