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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (26176)	12/31/2003 12:08:58 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Claude: I started to look at my charts last night. I found my telechart program was down and they are sending me a new disk. (I seem to be having a lot of computer problems recently. Really aggravating) At any rate I will tell you my thoughts based on recent analysis. My position on gold stocks has not changed the trend is up as long as the weekly uptrend line I referred to in previous posts remains in tact on the HUI and important majors. (note tha FCX) did briefly break. If the uptrend is broken I think we could be looking at an intermediate term top. This would also be consistent with seasonal trends. I disagree with you on US equities. They are in a strong uptrend and there is no reason to believe that the uptrend has ended. I like energy and banks especially. This is a technical analysis. Fundamentally, I can't understand how this market can be so hot. But as I have always said analyzing the broad market from a fundamental perspective is not one of my skills. I do think we are overdue for a short term correction. PM's. You could be right, but they have not given much and I think a lot of people are expecting a break. In my view gold is not overbought from the charts. PM Stocks are overbought and could react at any time, but the uptrend is still in tact. USD, this is interesting to me. It is near long term support but still looks awful. It seems logical that if there is a bounce off long term support gold is likely to react (i.e. down). However, at the moment the jury is out. Also, CRB index at important area and could likewise react. If dollar rallies and CRB reacts down, I probably will be lightening up on gold and silver stocks. This is a tense market and a tough one on the psyche. Little joe

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (26176)	12/31/2003 3:08:24 PM
From: Condor	Respond to of 39344

Hi CC, I thought this interesting re: gold short position. Message 19642696 Cheers C

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (26176)	12/31/2003 3:59:32 PM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

I'll second Little Joe on the US markets relying upon purely derivative information: all of Lowry's Research, Ned Davis, Richard Russell, Dan Sullivan, James Stack, and John Hussman are constructive on the market. These are not perma bulls. Hussman and Sullivan, I know, flipped from bearish to bullish (correctly) in April this year. Stack was a bit earlier, prior to the October 2002 bottom. Don't recall the other change dates but on balance the track record for each of these folks is exemplary.